A new high perhaps, but the chance of the asteroid missing the Earth is still 97.4%. In all likelyhood, this asteroid is going to sail by the Earth and the Moon and then disappear into the void again. And even if it were to hit, it is still most likely to hit the ocean or sparsely inhabited land.
Reposted from
New Scientist
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, so astronomers are scrambling to observe it before it disappears from view in April. The latest data shows the chance of collision has hit a new high.
Comments
So basically this would mostly just be the effect of the rock hitting the water, rather than an explosion of some kind?