New UNEP emissions gap report highlights a "massive gap between rhetoric and reality" and calls for a "quantum leap" in ambition to deliver Paris goals, as the world is way off-track today. I cover the details over at @CarbonBrief: www.carbonbrief.org/... - ThreadSky

hausfath.bsky.social • 131 days ago

New UNEP emissions gap report highlights a "massive gap between rhetoric and reality" and calls for a "quantum leap" in ambition to deliver Paris goals, as the world is way off-track today.

I cover the details over at @CarbonBrief: https://www.carbonbrief.org/unep-new-climate-pledges-need-quantum-leap-in-ambition-to-deliver-paris-goals/

Comments

mattliepaehlke.bsky.social•131 days ago

I can say as a Canadian that the odds we actually deliver on our weak NDCs is low. The policies we actually have in place probably don't get us there and they are more likely to be rolled back than increased. I worry that most countries are like this unless we crush the fossil fuel propaganda.

ruckus.bsky.social•131 days ago

what's your prediction for the thing that will finally get the attention of the naysayers and when that will occur

rahmstorf.bsky.social•131 days ago

Some might take that wording all too literally, knowing that a quantum leap is the smallest physically possible change.

hausfath.bsky.social•131 days ago

Indeed, though its the wording that UNEP chose for their report: "The next NDCs must deliver a quantum leap in ambition in tandem with accelerated mitigation action in this decade."

umsonst.bsky.social•131 days ago

Hi Stefan, how about a warning to humanity that there exist only medium confidence that global warming will not spiral out of control now?

Both sinks are now in the process of decline while MHW feedback goes on and SAM seems to weaken - ocean heat uptake...

2024 temps. again beating 2023 temps...

hoodiecraw.bsky.social•131 days ago

#songforthat
https://youtu.be/4cia_v4vxfE?si=xGAC4zEQSpxfCVqL

hausfath.bsky.social•131 days ago

The report highlights that greenhouse gas emissions reached record levels in 2023, up 1.3% from 2022. It also shows how progress and ambition have “plateaued” in recent years, with relatively little of substance occurring since pledges made at COP26 in 2021.

hausfath.bsky.social•131 days ago

It finds that Current policies put the world on track for 2.9C of warming by 2100 – though this could be reduced to 2.4-2.6C, if all existing NDCs are met. This is a notable increase from the 2.7C current policy outcome in the prior 2023 report:

hausfath.bsky.social•131 days ago

This represents a bit of divergence from other estimates in the literature. Back in 2022 the three most prominent estimates agreed with a best estimate of ~2.6C to 2.7C warming under current policies. Today IEA is down to 2.4C and UNEP is up to 2.9C, a 0.5C gap.

hausfath.bsky.social•131 days ago

While the magnitude of the challenge is “indisputable”, there are “abundant opportunities for accelerating mitigation”, the report says. It finds that global emissions could be cut by 54% by 2030 and 72% by 2035 at a cost of less than $200 per tonne of CO2.

hausfath.bsky.social•131 days ago

This indicates that the gap between commitments and current policies is a result of a lack of policy support rather than more fundamental barriers to decarbonisation: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024

katharinehayhoe.com•131 days ago

Appreciate your analysis. Thank you!

kimcobb.bsky.social•131 days ago

I'd call lack of policy support a (the most?) fundamental barrier to decarbonization, but I know what you mean.

tallydon.bsky.social•131 days ago

If this figure of 2.9 C rise underestimates natural contributions, likely we will exceed 3°C due to the continued loss of carbon sinks & increased emissions from natural sources triggered by higher temperatures. A rise of 3°C or more would have catastrophic consequences for most forms of life.

kornelis.bsky.social•130 days ago

Good summary!

f2r3e5d4.bsky.social•127 days ago

Can @carbonbrief.org explain how two completely different stories of theirs align?
Compare the above from @hausfath.bsky.social with that of @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org
https://bsky.app/profile/drsimevans.carbonbrief.org/post/3l6salqwkkm27

#climate #climatesky #greensky

GreenFire.mstdn.social.ap.brid.gy•131 days ago

@hausfath.bsky.social
Perhaps Artificial Intelligence could provide all eight billion of us with our own personal paths to achieve our climate goals?

anlomedad.bsky.social•130 days ago

That! And Bitcoin!

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