Global temperatures have started 2025 at record-setting levels – above where they were in January 2024 despite the emergence of modest La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific.
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With half the month of data now in, its looking likely that January 2025 will end up quite close to 2024, and has a ~50% chance to set a new all-time record for the warmest January.
The persistence of warmth after the end of the 2023/2024 El Nino event remains quite anomalous by historical standards. Heres a comparison between the evolution of (detrended) temperatures after major El Nino events (updated from this: https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-unusual-is-current-post-el-nino)
Interesting. However, the 2023-24 El Nino dissipated after Mar-May of 2024 and then transitioned to a cold event. This is a typical case because a strong El Nino event is usually followed by a La Nina event as one can see from the attached table from CPC 🌊🧪: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
The emergent feedback reaction is on track to beat natural variability.If we continue to emit such vast amounts of GHGs global warming will now fast spiral out of control as we triggered a non-linear system that is able to produce significant warming on its own by feedbacks and energy redistribution
@hausfath.bsky.social Does the glitch in the Jan ERA5 data impact this assessment at all? I see they have started the process to fix this and will be available next week sometime?
Stupid its the oceans! We missed the biggest feedback by assuming that ocean heat uptake will increase doesn't matter how fast we warm the system - oops!
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