I am still trying to wrap my head around the aerosol story also because of its connection to the mysterious 0,2 K surface temp increase...
I have read a study (Hailing Jia and Johannes Quaas 2023) that there is a delay of roughly two decades in the full regional impact of reduced SOx emissions.
If that is the case then what we are witnessing are not the impacts of IMO 2020, but the land based de-SOx measures for the power sector, e.g. in the EU after 1996 and more spectacularly after 2004 as the result of the EU Large Combustion Plants Directive.
I suppose this so2 emission reduction hypothesis and subsequent aerosol upper atmosphere reduction effect on surface temperature increase should reveal itself within the next few years.
Thanks for replying. On a general note, friends and relatives ask me about climate change in terms of what is going to happen and when and how much of a problem is it going to be. Also how can we resolve it? I know precise predictions are not possible but a general idea is useful.
I tell them we need to decarbonise as rapidly as possible. I say go electric for almost everything. Worldwide we need 1/2 million offshore turbines and 400Kkm2 of solar pv with a system of interconnectors and grid storage plus some nuclear and hydro.
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I have read a study (Hailing Jia and Johannes Quaas 2023) that there is a delay of roughly two decades in the full regional impact of reduced SOx emissions.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/so-emissions-by-world-region-in-million-tonnes