The new WMO State of the Climate report has a section by Gavin Schmidt and me on attributing exceptional 2023 and 2024 warmth. We find that while 2024 can be well explained by changes in forcings and internal variability, 2023 remains more of a mystery: - ThreadSky

hausfath.bsky.social • 21 days ago

The new WMO State of the Climate report has a section by Gavin Schmidt and me on attributing exceptional 2023 and 2024 warmth.

We find that while 2024 can be well explained by changes in forcings and internal variability, 2023 remains more of a mystery:

Comments

zanesloanbc.bsky.social•20 days ago

Hey, just wanna say thanks for keeping up with the feed of information about the evolving science surrounding global warming and climate change.

We in the applied sciences need to keep up to speed, and your feed is fantastically informative. Sincerely appreciated.✌️🙂

misterz03.bsky.social•21 days ago

hausfath.bsky.social•21 days ago

For this analysis we surveyed different estimates of forcings and warming outcomes from different factors, and did a bit of our own modeling of 2023/2024 El Nino, solar cycle, and East Asian aerosol contributions based on previously published approaches.

hausfath.bsky.social•21 days ago

The full WMO State of the Climate 2024 report can be found here, and is worth a read! https://library.wmo.int/records/item/69455-state-of-the-global-climate-2024

trackow.bsky.social•21 days ago

Link does not seem to work?

jeannoel.bsky.social•21 days ago

https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2024

trackow.bsky.social•21 days ago

Merci!

tom-weiss.bsky.social•21 days ago

Oh, you got that already...

tom-weiss.bsky.social•21 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/wmo-global.bsky.social/post/3lkppprdeds2l

pukite.com•21 days ago

"solar cycle"

You mean the *actual* solar cycle -- the one that actually takes a year to complete?

Climate scientists are so infatuated with sunspots that they can't see what's staring them in the face.

nzmike.bsky.social•21 days ago

Looks like very large uncertainties. Do you think that there is a reasonable chance that the actual temperature anomaly in 2024 may not be explained by the combined forcings estimates?

jamtam.bsky.social•21 days ago

to my eye the residuals are trending upwards, as if there is a systematic missing piece of the puzzle.

abrailove.bsky.social•21 days ago

Sadly, the budget cuts have forced our top climate scientists to publish on parchment paper.

tacheles-d.bsky.social•21 days ago

Well the 2023 El Niño error bar is rather large?

Posting Rules

Be respectful to others
No spam or self-promotion
Stay on topic
Follow Bluesky's terms of service

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply