There's around 20 congressional districts that appear vulnerable, given this model of the 119th Congress I developed. I used LASSO to select a set of significant and minimally colinear features to a logistic model, leveraging 2023 Census estimates from the ACS. rpubs.com/Grimace/forc... - ThreadSky

grimace14.bsky.social • 1 day ago

There's around 20 congressional districts that appear vulnerable, given this model of the 119th Congress I developed. I used LASSO to select a set of significant and minimally colinear features to a logistic model, leveraging 2023 Census estimates from the ACS.

https://rpubs.com/Grimace/forcasting-119th-congress

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grimace14.bsky.social•1 day ago

Many of the identified areas are in Texas and Florida, but also Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. This model ranks according to area composition but likely has clues for constituent issues as well. I planned to do another county and block group level analysis similar to this.

grimace14.bsky.social•1 day ago

Republican districts with the lowest expected likelihood of being held by a Republican:

District 10, Pennsylvania (Scott Perry 50.5%)
District 1, New York (Nicholas LaLota 55.2%)
District 1, Maryland (Andy Harris 59.6%)

grimace14.bsky.social•1 day ago

The most valuable districts as a function of population density and power (inverse population per representative) are:

District 10, Michigan (John James, 51.1%)
District 24, Texas (Beth Van Duyne, 60.3%)
District 1, New York (Nicholas LaLota, 55.2%)

grimace14.bsky.social•1 day ago

When viewing district level power, we see several places where power is concentrated (dark) and should be merged to reduce districts, but also regions that are light and should be split. Zoomed out, it appears many of the darker shaded regions are in the South, Midwest and West.

grimace14.bsky.social•1 day ago

Keep in mind though, there are obvious abuses that concentrate power away from Democratic held areas. Texas is notoriously gerrymandered, resulting in diminished power in Democratically held cities around Houston and Dallas

grimace14.bsky.social•1 day ago

In summary, the power held by Republicans in Congress is disproportionate to the number of people they represent, and significantly fewer racial or ethnic minorities are represented by Republicans in Congress. Their constituency is predictably older, more often Caucasian and rural.

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