If Telegraph was reporting the research properly, this headline should be 1 in 18. Or 1 in 15 if want to spin it They have reduced London's population by 2 million, then chosen the top of a projected range, giving the median in the text. The range given would suggest from 1 in 15 to 1 in 23, with - ThreadSky

sundersays.bsky.social • 36 days ago

If Telegraph was reporting the research properly, this headline should be 1 in 18. Or 1 in 15 if want to spin it

They have reduced London's population by 2 million, then chosen the top of a projected range, giving the median in the text. The range given would suggest from 1 in 15 to 1 in 23, with

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annaclarke.bsky.social•35 days ago

Where has the 7,044,667 London population figure come from though? It's very precise and I can't find it anywhere online. Possibly it's the population in the area in blue, so is from the report and is Thames Water's London area?

wookiebill.bsky.social•36 days ago

London is by far the most productive part of the UK. Saying it's got large numbers of illegal migrants isn't the flex they think it is.

drandrewmcniven.bsky.social•35 days ago

However, and sadly, it doesn’t matter that it is easily debunked; it’s served its purpose…

johngage1.bsky.social•36 days ago

sundersays.bsky.social•36 days ago

London's population is 9 million, not 7 million. Mid-year 2023 figure here.
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/londons-population

omaromalleykhan.bsky.social•35 days ago

That is a curiously precise number. I checked but it doesn't match any census data. Closest is 2001, tho even that was higher than the figure in the screenshot and that is of course 24 years ago

sundersays.bsky.social•36 days ago

Telegraph headline is exaggerating numbers + is not new research. A piece of analysis for Thames Water makes calculations based on other previous research (such as Pew, 2020).

If using Pew, should say 1 in 18.

If using GLA, 1 in 22

Uni Oxford
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/recent-estimates-of-the-uks-irregular-migrant-population/

sundersays.bsky.social•36 days ago

This doesn't sound like new research at all. Just a calculation by a consultancy for Thames Water being spun by the newspaper

sundersays.bsky.social•36 days ago

No reasonable basis for broadcasters to use the 1 in 12 figure. The new analysis using old data comes out as between 1 in 15 and 1 in 23, but the old research is speculative.

It is possible the Telegraph headline could lose an Ipso Clause 1 accuracy challenge on London population and 1 in 12

sundersays.bsky.social•35 days ago

University of Oxford explanation of the residual method used to make estimates in these studies
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/recent-estimates-of-the-uks-irregular-migrant-population/

sundersays.bsky.social•35 days ago

The 2021 census shows 3.6 million people (4/10) born abroad who live in London. And there may be 300-600k who lack legal status, on research estimates.

Ethnic diversity includes many among the British-born.

A significant number of those born abroad became British citizens after 6+ years here

lelapindasie.bsky.social•30 days ago

Have you reported them to IPSO? 😉 (not that it’ll make any difference, this xenophobic rag and its journalists don’t have a shred of integrity left)

warwicks1.bsky.social•35 days ago

I was thinking - it's good to call out mendacious or sloppy reporting but it only really hits home if someone formally complains about it. Hope that might be the case here?

lelapindasie.bsky.social•30 days ago

I bet you in the long term it won’t make any difference—better keep churning out falsehoods from time to time to keep your reactionary readership base

martymcd.bsky.social•36 days ago

This is Goodwinism writ large, which is a bit ironic given he's winding up his polling company. Also, the Telegraph is no longer interested in facts, it's game over

expected000.bsky.social•36 days ago

Who funds Pew Reseach?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Templeton_Foundation
Who also fund
Atlas Economic Research Foundation
"Since 1981.. the leading international organization for supporting independent think tanks advancing freedom.
... and founded by the late Antony (IEA) Fisher"
https://www.atlas-fdn.org/welcome-to-atlas-economic-research-foundation/

expected000.bsky.social•36 days ago

Incidentally, Thames Water are not covered by FOI requests
" for information which is not environmental in nature,"
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/body/thames_water

mrsivb.bsky.social•35 days ago

9/10 Telegraph headlines are complete bollocks (and I'm being generous).

drpaulitious.bsky.social•36 days ago

If they can count illegal migrants, they must know who they are surely?

sundersays.bsky.social•35 days ago

There does not seem to be any new research here and there is no actual counting of people in the residual method projections of the old research. See Uni of Oxford explanation of method
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/recent-estimates-of-the-uks-irregular-migrant-population/

drpaulitious.bsky.social•35 days ago

I know it's more complicated than my flippant post suggested. But given that report says "irregular" and the Telegraph says "illegal" I'd say I was being no more flippant that the Telegraph.

drpaulitious.bsky.social•35 days ago

I know it's more complicated than that, before you decide to tell me.

dctrojan.bsky.social•35 days ago

Anyone would think they had an axe to grind

lizalaw.bsky.social•35 days ago

We know what the Telegraph is. More worrying that BBC headlines 'Trump comes out swinging ' focusing uncritically on his immigration 'policy'. Xenophobia is being enabled

beealing.bsky.social•35 days ago

Only a really stupid person would continue reading after "Thames Water". Why are they a source of immigration data?

keyzersuze.bsky.social•36 days ago

1 in 100 articles in this paper is correct and true

paulmpax.bsky.social•35 days ago

this seems like an overly generous approximation

philippeauclair.bsky.social•35 days ago

Terrific thread, Sunder, thank you.

kezzaclogs.bsky.social•35 days ago

And London with all those immigrants creates the revenue that subsidises most of the UK.

foxnosedesign.bsky.social•35 days ago

1 in 12 Telegraph’s readers may be racist

pranman.com•35 days ago

They also missed that international students don't need NI numbers.

pranman.com•35 days ago

Or non-working dependents.

saintthejase.bsky.social•35 days ago

Not surprising coming from Nazi collaborators The Telegraph

pompoustakes.bsky.social•35 days ago

It would even at the lower % resonate with ppl at *a lot* & will be associated with what for many have been striking changes in ethnic diversity in the city.

sundersays.bsky.social•35 days ago

The 2021 census shows 3.6 million people (4/10) born abroad who live in London. And may be 300-600k who lack legal status. Ethnic diversity includes many among the British-born. A significant number of those born abroad became British citizens after 6+ years here

ianhunter.bsky.social•35 days ago

5% of the population lacking the legal status to be here would still be surprisingly high. I am not a gammony Reformer, but I am a little shocked by this.

sundersays.bsky.social•35 days ago

Most people give little thought to this. They are thinking of people in boats and lorries. They are not thinking of Australians and Indians who overstayed visas and are working

pompoustakes.bsky.social•35 days ago

The small, small boats numbers are hugely exaggerated in the public's assumptions, but when they pop into London and are a bit taken aback to be reminded of that line from Elivis Costello, they don't imagine it's all a consequence of rubber dinghies across the Channel.

sundersays.bsky.social•35 days ago

But if they are noticing the visible diversity of London, they are now looking at a lot of children and grandchildren of post-1948 and post-1990 migrants, legal migrants, naturalised citizens. Hard to separate those without legal status, when it is hard now to separate migrants from the British-born

pompoustakes.bsky.social•35 days ago

It's just a fact that highly visible & striking changes in ethnic diversity will be associated in most readers' minds with surprisingly high numbers of 'illegal' immigrants living there.
There may be another fact that most of that visibility is from UK born diversity.

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