This week, the Trump administration issued NSPM-2, laying out the economic and diplomatic tools of a renewed "Maximum Pressure" campaign, while POTUS @realDonaldTrump called for a "Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement" with Iran. 🧵 on reading the early tea leaves. - ThreadSky

alivaez.bsky.social • 26 days ago

This week, the Trump administration issued NSPM-2, laying out the economic and diplomatic tools of a renewed "Maximum Pressure" campaign, while POTUS @realDonaldTrump called for a "Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement" with Iran.

🧵 on reading the early tea leaves.

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alivaez.bsky.social•26 days ago

2/ In 2018-20, "Max Pressure" post-U.S. withdrawal from JCPOA put a massive dent in Iran's economy. Iran retaliated with a two-pronged counter-pressure campaign: nuclear escalation and regional provocation. There was little substantive engagement/diplomacy between the two sides.

alivaez.bsky.social•26 days ago

3/ Under the Biden admin, talks in 2021-22 to revive the JCPOA came to naught. De-escalatory understandings in 2023 collapsed after Hamas's 7 October attack against Israel. U.S. focus turned to avoiding widening of conflict, and defending allies and interests.

alivaez.bsky.social•26 days ago

4/ As of early 2025, Iran's power projection and influence in the region has been sharply reduced with the weakening of Hamas/Hizbollah and fall of Assad. Its economic situation is already poor, even before sanctions are bolstered. However, nuclear program as advanced as ever.

alivaez.bsky.social•26 days ago

5/ If there are to be negotiations leading to a "VNPA" - POTUS says "we should start working on it immediately" - and the Iranians appear game for some sort of talks with his administration there are several elements that must fall into place. This is easier said than done.

alivaez.bsky.social•26 days ago

6/ The first issue: What's on the table? Even if only addressing nuclear issues, the JCPOA framework no longer exists. Deal would need to address two elements of concern: Transparency into Iran's past and present nuclear activity, and limits on its production of fissile material.

alivaez.bsky.social•26 days ago

7/ But that may not suffice: In Europe, Iran's drone/missile shipments to Russia are viewed as real concern. Circumstances may also allow for some degree of understandings on the regional front. Non-nuclear issues weren't in JCPOA - it may be possible to better that now.

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