Short presentation (< 15mins) on just how vanishingly small are our remaining carbon budgets for 1.5 & 2°C - both globally & when downscaled to wealthy industrialised nations. In a handful of years our Paris 2°C commitment will go the way same way as has 1.5°C. climateuncensored.com/irelands-cli... - ThreadSky

kevinclimate.bsky.social • 30 days ago

Short presentation (< 15mins) on just how vanishingly small are our remaining carbon budgets for 1.5 & 2°C - both globally & when downscaled to wealthy industrialised nations. In a handful of years our Paris 2°C commitment will go the way same way as has 1.5°C.
https://climateuncensored.com/irelands-climate-justice-obligations-presentation/

Comments

lp7.bsky.social•29 days ago

📌

anlomedad.bsky.social•28 days ago

Thank you! You point out that global mean °C doesn't matter but the impacts & their rate of change👍
Then you also show AR6-WG2 so I hoped you'd take the time to present some differences between 1.5 vs WB2. You didn't. But IMO "hard numbers talks" gain from illustrating impacts in AR6-WG2 or SR1.5

kevinclimate.bsky.social•28 days ago

Agree; my work is mitigation focussed, so I’m no expert on impacts. That said, when I get time I’ll try & draw out some headline impact distinctions between 1.5 &2°C … an important aspect of which is simply the significant rise in risk.

anlomedad.bsky.social•28 days ago

Ja! Maybe Exposed & Vulnerable from SR1.5, based on Byers et al 2018?
See how Obama tells people in his social & political circles fantasy figures wrt climate refugees.
CO2-budget talks 1.5 vs WB2 could include info:
1.5C=90mio, 2C=500mio, 3C=900mio – on our way to 2050! https://bsky.app/profile/anlomedad.bsky.social/post/3lernn2ox4s2w

lindhan.bsky.social•28 days ago

What year was it determined the reduction shall be equitable? If the budget is calculated from that year I bet Ireland (and all other developed countries) is in overshoot, badly. When this calculation is done after that date CO2e-budget is stolen from developing countries. No CO2e budget is left!

kevinclimate.bsky.social•28 days ago

The remaining carbon budgets for 1.5 & 2°C are far too small for equitable & plausible apportionment. Again, the global South will lose out & is why reparation is key to minimising the scale of inequity. Scams (CDR dominated models), delusion &lies need to be replaced with brutal honesty &integrity.

lindhan.bsky.social•28 days ago

I guess what I’m aiming at is that the equitable remaining budget for developed countries is negative. No budget left.

kevinclimate.bsky.social•28 days ago

If any reasonable interpretation of historical responsibility was to be included then that would be the case.

danielwilliams965.bsky.social•29 days ago

Yet you provide absolutely nothing in the way of a workable strategy, instead gaining satisfaction from undermining those technologies and policy options that represent the slightest hope of reining in emissions, and transferring skills globally: #hydrogen, #carbonpricing, #CCS, #CDR

misterp55.bsky.social•28 days ago

Daniel, if you watched the talk and spotted say the 14 years left of the 2C budget, and the need for a 7% cut pa in emissions to achieve it, which of those technologies you tag do you think will make it happen in time? Their impacts today are insignificant, they needed to have started 20 years ago.

danielwilliams965.bsky.social•27 days ago

All of them, humanity can walk and chew gum at the same time. The point is that focus is needed precisely on these technologies / policy options, as plans today are comprehensive and far-reaching, but take time to develop and become the status quo

I welcome your thoughts regarding options available

danielwilliams965.bsky.social•27 days ago

I think the push to hydrogen is going to be the decisive factor. It won't be immediate, but once it starts there will be no way to undermine the intrinsic logic of replacing most conventional fuel types with a regionally traded energy carrier, and using it for everything. It will definitely happen.

danielwilliams965.bsky.social•27 days ago

The question really at this point, is do shareholders want to fund and profit from a healthy and functional global economy, or are they content to keep trying to profit from a system that is going to decline catastrophically as temperatures increase

danielwilliams965.bsky.social•27 days ago

In this way the tipping point / equilibrium climate sensitivity argument is contentious. We know that mainstream climate scientists such as Zeke Hausfather promote shale, and this is really the tail wagging the dog.

But there is a possibility tail-end effects of climate may not be so disastrous.

rlxn.bsky.social•29 days ago

There are thousands and thousands of the shelf solutions to tackle climate change. Problem is they rip trough the profits of fossil fuel industry. Hence their very agressive and democracy undermining lobby against any meaningfull climate policy or action. But you knew that, didn't you.

petergarbutt.bsky.social•28 days ago

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/politics/sortition-revolution-a-bold-plan-to-avert-civilisations-collapse/

westc.bsky.social•28 days ago

Bet those expanding airports with green fuels labour have signed off will benefit that carbon budget....lunatics and asylum come to mind

examachine.bsky.social•27 days ago

We already passed 1.5C and 2C is baked in.

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