New from me - is it possible we are actually at peak populism? This post is an exercise in working through a scenario - I may very well be wrong. But also, outside of America, I think something is shifting. Because of America. 1/n benansell.substack.com/p/twilight-o... - ThreadSky

benansell.bsky.social • 14 days ago

New from me - is it possible we are actually at peak populism? This post is an exercise in working through a scenario - I may very well be wrong. But also, outside of America, I think something is shifting. Because of America. 1/n

https://benansell.substack.com/p/twilight-of-the-populists

Comments

laislabonita.bsky.social•14 days ago

seaseaseasiders.bsky.social•14 days ago

Kauffman has a piece in telegraph as well

wesselg2.bsky.social•14 days ago

I do agree that we indeed need a new narrative. Yet, that narrative might be transformative for our understanding of what democracy is, and what ought to be democratic. If we do not learn our lessens now in another 100 years we will be back at square one.

chardle.bsky.social•14 days ago

I hope you’re right and you make a good case. My worry from a UK perspective is that the conditions which made populism appealing - the sense of having no stake in the economy, poor job prospects etc remain in place. Add a Labour austerity budget and we’re back on the populism recruitment treadmill.

chardle.bsky.social•14 days ago

📌

johngage1.bsky.social•14 days ago

1/ Completely agree. The reality is that we r coming off a global pandemic which has been very damaging to expertise & social trust. The economy was damaged & the resulting inflation punished liberal incumbent parties. This is the perfect time for the far-right to seize power.

johngage1.bsky.social•14 days ago

2/ But Trump can’t get above 49% of the vote, AfD is at 20% & Le Pen is at 33%. Of course, this could change. But the possibility that this is the high water mark of populism should not be dismissed.

jemoyer.bsky.social•14 days ago

Hope it is not just wishful thinking.

benansell.bsky.social•14 days ago

After a slightly tortured but unavoidable Manchester United analogy, the post considers whether Trump is combining two characteristics of populists in democracies: chaos and authoritarianism. These are not two great flavours that go great together. 2/n

benansell.bsky.social•14 days ago

Lots of populism is chaotic - in that governing against the elite when you are the elite is hard. You end up flailing around a la Berlusconi, Johnson, or (perhaps) Trump 1.0. But if you don't have a secure elite backing from business and political rivals nothing sticks. 3/n

benansell.bsky.social•14 days ago

Contrast this to authoritarian populism in democracies - Orban, Law and Justice, perhaps Modi. This is about steadily and carefully tying a business community to you so they become dependent. About co-opting rivals. Creating politburos. This produces long-lasting democratic backsliding. 4/n

benansell.bsky.social•14 days ago

Trump 2.0 seems to be combining both. A much more dedicated attempt at tying in business allies, punishing opposition, stacking the bureaucracy etc, a la Orban. But doing so in a totally chaotic way that might easily all blow up. It's a roving bandit playing at being a stationary bandit. 5/n

benansell.bsky.social•14 days ago

Chaotic authoritarianism loses you support pretty quickly from anyone who doesn't desperately need your good grace. And this includes Trump-curious voters in other countries. The ambush of Zelenskyy, the attacks on Canada, Vance's 'random country' nonsense - they are all huge turnoffs. 6/n

nazishmunch.bsky.social•14 days ago

People hate admitting they were wrong. Those I know that supported Trump are very defensive now. And pulling out things like this to justify their choice. What it will take to bring them back to sanity, I don't know, but it must involve regulation of the falsehoods being spread on social media.

benansell.bsky.social•14 days ago

This is worsened by Trump's clear predilection for the (stable) authoritarianism of Vladimir Putin. Even with Putin, Trump is inconsistent and erratic, just as not as much as he is with allies. But this marrying of US populism with a clear foreign enemy may be poison for populists outside of US 7/n

bimblinghill.bsky.social•14 days ago

Well I guess that's why they're speedrunning past the 'needing support' bit

egrossman.bsky.social•14 days ago

I'm still trying to figure out whether this is an optimistic take or not...

pascalr57.bsky.social•14 days ago

Everyone forgets about the French revolution. You don't get more chaotic than that.

t0nyyates.bsky.social•14 days ago

If this is drawing inspiration from Utd’s decline I will have to avoid reading it.

benansell.bsky.social•14 days ago

Just some Big Jim slamming.

polprofsteve2024.bsky.social•14 days ago

My favoured Man U political comparison is with what Amorin and Starmer are doing just now … trying to fix over a decade of neglect but causing pain in the short term.

polprofsteve2024.bsky.social•14 days ago

But also possibly in the long-term too.

benansell.bsky.social•14 days ago

Also forcing all the left wingers to play more centrally.

oldtrotter.bsky.social•14 days ago

Tommy Docherty would never have revived United without Gordon Hill to balance out Steve Coppell 😉

polprofsteve2024.bsky.social•14 days ago

I’m sure Starmer would like to transfer Burgon to Aston Villa.

theangelofhistory.bsky.social•14 days ago

The issue is if a popular front approach is needed, you seem to be opposed to it. And regardless of public opinion, right wing populism now has the world’s most powerful state promoting it…

philmarsden.bsky.social•14 days ago

Starmer is at least investing in the defence.

gorillagladiator.bsky.social•13 days ago

The world goes elbows up against robber baron populism. This is our last chance!

leetaylorbythesea.bsky.social•14 days ago

This is one of the few positive outcomes from Trumps second term. The bone headed destructiveness of Brexit/Trump has helped prove that'disruptors' only break things. 2014 - 2030 (not exact on the years, maybe 2008 as the beginning) might be labelled "The age of disruption"

johnderek.bsky.social•14 days ago

As far as UK concerned I think populists will continue in the ascendant even if Reform diminishes

The Conservatives will see this as their successful strategy carry on policies

Labour have decided on more austerity. Accepting tax reform is impossible and immigration is bad

terryweldon.bsky.social•14 days ago

I don't think so. I think Reform really have hit their peak and will start to lose support, but I don't see Tories picking up the slack - they're in too much trouble themselves, with an uninspiring leadership and no clear policy direction beyong the failed Rwanda plan.

terryweldon.bsky.social•14 days ago

Labour will see some "rally to the flag" recovery, and disillutioned Labour voters are more likely to defect to other smaller parties: LD, Greens, SNP, and WPB (Workers Party of Britain).

stevepeers.bsky.social•14 days ago

Interesting thread! I've long thought that unlike international cooperation across the rest of the political spectrum, there's an inherent conflict in "international nationalism" - particularly where, as here, the chief nationalists take aim at the economies and histories of their supposed allies.

jonaburgdorffer.bsky.social•14 days ago

Even if the trend is (hopefully) as you describe it we still need to better understand how we got into this situation in the first place. The rise of populism is attributed to anything from boredom, inequality, wokism to social media. Its true nature I would argue remains a mystery.

tadaaa.bsky.social•14 days ago

Ppl also like being lied to

terryweldon.bsky.social•14 days ago

My view is that Reform have definitely peaked - there are already signs of that in the latest opinion polls (see the graph on the Wikipedia page). The current infighting won't help, nor will Farage's past support for Trump.

They're currently underperforming opinion polls in actual by-elections.

terryweldon.bsky.social•13 days ago

Latest YouGov
YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention

Lab 24% (-2)
RefUK 23% (-2)
Con 22%(+1)
LD 15% (+1)
Green 9%(nc)

9/10 March, 2,291 GB adults

RefUK -2%, joint lowest from YouGov this year.

terryweldon.bsky.social•14 days ago

In the May local elections, they'll be be limited in their effectiveness in having imited existing voter data, or experienced teams. They'll do well in the locals - but not as well as they're hoping/expecting.
With an expanded team of elected officials, there''l be even more scope for civil war.

stpbone.bsky.social•13 days ago

Really interesting piece. We live in hope

fgenovese.bsky.social•14 days ago

Don't threaten us with a good time, Ben

thatrosiewood.bsky.social•14 days ago

I do hope so

londoner007.bsky.social•14 days ago

God yes

richardbarfield.bsky.social•14 days ago

Your point about a populist who sides with an enemy sowing his own downfall makes sense.

ottocr.at•14 days ago

"In France and Germany they have become the official opposition. In the United Kingdom, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK have led in several recent voting intention polls."

I think it would be hard to dispute that in the UK too they have become the official opposition. UK Tories are absolutely RW populists

pascalr57.bsky.social•14 days ago

Let's not get ahead of ourselves...

virescitvv.bsky.social•13 days ago

Yes, conceivably. There have been enough 'natural experiments' (Brexit, Trump, Bolsonaro) to prove to even the slowest of uptake that the results are disappointing, at best. When the only defence left is 'we lacked sufficient revolutionary zeal', the game is, usually, over.

clivemitchell1.bsky.social•14 days ago

Great piece, thanks Ben.
Ref our populist-du-décennie, Farage, I suspect he sees a path to no. 10: cross the floor to the Tories, coup the leadership (the Tories are ripe for this), voila LOTO. Reform UK will wither, having served its purpose of getting him into the Commons.

jacklondonbluesky.bsky.social•14 days ago

Very well-argued article - thank you

I do feel Erdogan and Orban represent a more permanent form of populism and avoided being weakened by Trump

If there is a spread of war in Europe beyond Ukraine (please, no!) then they may be forced into a choice but at present I cannot see them being dislodged

markgannon.bsky.social•14 days ago

📌

limpwhim.bsky.social•10 days ago

How is it that our Commonwealth Canadian friends are under attack from Trump and Brexit Farage with his Anglosphere rhetoric is backing him. Some might call it traitorous, certainly contradictory. Hardly suits his old empire exhortation. Labour should swoop.

mcslaven.bsky.social•14 days ago

Yes, one thing I think the competitive authoritarianism takes on the US are missing is that Trump has no interest in the GOP except as a vehicle for his own power. In terms of legacy-building, he’s not creating a long-term incentive structure of obedience but instead is talking about annexing Canada

tweet-by-sea.bsky.social•14 days ago

So long as we're fixated on a messainaic CEO figure rather than governments of expertise, we'll continue to fall victim to Populists of all political persuasions. The leader is important but we should look more at how they support and build the team around them. This is the lesson from Trump 2.

cool2btrans.bsky.social•14 days ago

I sincerely hope you are right, Ben! The likes of Trump, Vance and their chums are doing so much damage to the whole world.

mrsingh.bsky.social•14 days ago

Instead of boiling the frog these guys are in everyone’s ears 24 hours a day. Nobody wants it.

adamcain.bsky.social•14 days ago

"Rupert Lowe....a hero, at least in the eyes of Portsmouth fans" raised a chuckle.

localnotail.bsky.social•14 days ago

good thoughts, thank you.

icymi, promising news from Hungary https://bsky.app/profile/europeelects.bsky.social/post/3ljyza3ioef2e

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply