Germany, Ipsos poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 29% (-1)
AfD-ESN: 21% (+2)
SPD-S&D: 16%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 13% (-1)
BSW-NI: 5% (-1)
FDP-RE: 4%
LINKE-LEFT: 4% (+1)
+/- vs. 16-18 January 2025
Fieldwork: 30-31 January 2025
Sample size: 1,000
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
CDU/CSU-EPP: 29% (-1)
AfD-ESN: 21% (+2)
SPD-S&D: 16%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 13% (-1)
BSW-NI: 5% (-1)
FDP-RE: 4%
LINKE-LEFT: 4% (+1)
+/- vs. 16-18 January 2025
Fieldwork: 30-31 January 2025
Sample size: 1,000
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
Comments
But, and that matters more: only parties with >5% (or 3 direct mandates) get into Bundestag.
That 45% of votes should yield over 50% of seats, if FDP is out (Left have a chance to get 3 direct seats, which would get them e.g. 4.8% of seats)