Putting together the year-end piece, and here's what I get for US murders and rate per year from 1960-2024. The 2024 estimate is possibly a little low and obviously not final, but the sharp decline in the last two years is remarkable.
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My assumption is a 14% decline from 2023 levels, which is a conservative read of the big city data (-16.6% through September in 309 cities in RTCI) and no major revision to the 2023 figure. Even with a large upward revision, the 2024 figure should be roughly at 2019's level.
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