Respectfully, I'm not sure either take is most useful. Putting aside 'random' for a moment, dice *are* predictable. A single dice (say, D6) produces a value based on a uniform distribution. Each value is predictable with a known probability.
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
2 dice produce a sum-total from a normal distribution. The more dice, the narrower that distribution. After a certain point, throwing enough D6s, produces a sum-total that can be easily predicted.
We know how unlikely a nat20 is, and while it's not predictable on any given roll, that we know ...
in your observation. Players don't want random (and they certainly don't want chaotic), but they do want to be surprised when something that is unlikely to happen does happen (especially when it's a clutch moment).
Surprising results are another aspect of dice rolls which can be fun, although I've certainly seen people annoyed with a surprising result which they didn't want.
I wouldn't say so no. 1d6 has six possible results, 10d6 has 51. 10d6 is almost certainly going to produce a result in the middle of its range of possible outputs but it isn't less random or more predictable.
Sure you know for certain that a d6 is going to roll between 1 and 6, but if you are taking d6 damage and you only have 4 HP then you can't predict if you are going to survive (even if you do know the exact odds of surviving).
Comments
We know how unlikely a nat20 is, and while it's not predictable on any given roll, that we know ...
Respectfully, it feels like the you're using the term 'unpredictable' more like 'unexpected'.
"It's not that we want things to be random, we want them to be unexpected"
Is this a fair take, do you think? I think there is some insight...