Ismar, appreciate the work you are doing on democracy reform, but encourage you to dig deeper on the math on RCV. You wrote, “… voters are not worried about wasting their votes [in RCV]…” - unfortunately RCV still has the “wasted” vote problem- voters who are not worried are simply misled… - ThreadSky

nardopolo.bsky.social • 190 days ago

Ismar, appreciate the work you are doing on democracy reform, but encourage you to dig deeper on the math on RCV. You wrote, “… voters are not worried about wasting their votes [in RCV]…” - unfortunately RCV still has the “wasted” vote problem- voters who are not worried are simply misled…

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nardopolo.bsky.social•190 days ago

This video - https://youtu.be/Y7xHB-av6Cc - walks through the math of the method and contrasts with the claims, using both a hypothetical example and Alaska’s first use as explainers. Particularly in combination with a Top-N primary, RCV is a poor choice for fair elections.

ismarvolic.bsky.social•190 days ago

Hi Mark, I did dig deeper and in fact wrote a book about voting methods which I urge you to read. It explains in gory detail why IRV is (mildly) superior to Condorcet, Borda, approval, range, etc. The Alaska anomaly can only be found in three out of thousands of elections.

nardopolo.bsky.social•190 days ago

I’ve got your book on order! Some thoughts… are you familiar w/ Quinn’s work on VSE (https://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/) and Ogren’s further work (https://voting-in-the-abstract.medium.com/voter-satisfaction-efficiency-many-many-results-ad66ffa87c9e)? Also, once I’ve had a chance to digest your writing, would love to do a podcast if you’re game :-).

nardopolo.bsky.social•190 days ago

Finally, calling Alaska’s first use of RCV w/ top 4 an “anomaly” is a real stretch. RCV’s failure mode occurs with arguably unacceptable frequency whenever there are more than just two competitive candidates, a scenario that is much more likely in statewide open field elections…

nardopolo.bsky.social•190 days ago

If your car explodes every few hundred times you drive it, that would be an outrageous level of failure. After just one fail in Alaska, partisans moved swiftly to avoid a repeat by deliberately narrowing the field, which sorta defeats the whole purpose. Australian parties behave similarly.

ismarvolic.bsky.social•190 days ago

Well, that’s politics, where logic and reason — and hence math — no longer applies.

fwd-alaska.bsky.social•181 days ago

true, political pressures narrowed our congressional field this year and lead to a Rep winning. Too early to tell what lessons will be learned from that race. Will allow challengers to Begich in '26? Will Dems narrow their field? Will 3rd party candidates be a factor? We'll just have to see.

ismarvolic.bsky.social•190 days ago

Not sure where you’re getting your data, but there’s ample evidence that rcv very rarely fails things like monotonicity, IIA, and the Condorcet criterion. Mathematically, it’s a very sound system. Sure, it’s not perfect, but it’s as good as it gets in many ways.

ismarvolic.bsky.social•190 days ago

Sure, happy to do a podcast, thanks!

nardopolo.bsky.social•190 days ago

Your book gets here Friday, so give me a few days to see where you’re coming from and then let’s gooo! And have a happy holiday in the interim.

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