claiming that the AU and others should focus on causes not symptoms misses the point that AS has tactical and strategic operational advantages on the ground that make it almost impossible to gain a foothold in AS controlled territories. The FGS wont be able to implement any major reforms without 2/ - ThreadSky

About ThreadSky

simonwoell.bsky.social • 86 days ago

claiming that the AU and others should focus on causes not symptoms misses the point that AS has tactical and strategic operational advantages on the ground that make it almost impossible to gain a foothold in AS controlled territories. The FGS wont be able to implement any major reforms without 2/

Comments

simonwoell.bsky.social•86 days ago

providing the basic security that indeed now is missing. There are countless efforts to improve governance, RoL etc. but the glass ceiling for most of these is the inability to operate in the majority of districts - not the regionals operational and financial structural focus on hard security.

cdeconing.bsky.social•81 days ago

Thank you Simon. Do I understand correctly that thanks to security gains to date, the govt controls all the large urban centres where the majority live. Is the key to stabilising Somalia and weakening AS not to provide these people with better governance & RoL than AS is offering?

simonwoell.bsky.social•81 days ago

No, I am afraid that is incorrect. a) these "security gains" are not what they seem - there has been no expansion of safe to operate areas in the HSM tenure, b) the biggest city's mandate is still not clear in this constitution and while the city admin is doing fairly well, security is a problem,

simonwoell.bsky.social•81 days ago

c) the second largest municipality is not under control of the govt. in Mogadishu, d) some of the smaller ones are doing "ok", but that's where it stops. 50% of the population lives in rural areas, many of whom are IDPs with no stable access to services and are subject to weather and insecurity.

simonwoell.bsky.social•81 days ago

If you want to weaken AS you need a major ramping up of security investment - and a divestment is taking place rn. You wont be able to outbid AS on governance or RoL under the current security architecture for a set of reasons that I think we all know.

cdeconing.bsky.social•65 days ago

Thank you, much appreciated.

Posting Rules

Be respectful to others
No spam or self-promotion
Stay on topic
Follow Bluesky's terms of service

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply