Amidst #COP29, you might have missed it but, the most important environmental treaty since the #Paris is being negotiated THIS week!
At the #INC-5 in Busan, countries are hoping to strike an agreement on a global treaty to reduce #plastic pollution.
But why is this relevant for climate? A 🧵
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At the #INC-5 in Busan, countries are hoping to strike an agreement on a global treaty to reduce #plastic pollution.
But why is this relevant for climate? A 🧵
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Comments
around 5% of global emissions.
Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year.
This puts them above energy use related emissions from oil and gas extraction and aviation.
[UPDATE: corrected chart]
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Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
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This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
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Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4: future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
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A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require:
- Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability
- V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice
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Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow.
If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited.
Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical.
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See this piece from my colleague Zeke:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-will-be-first-year-above-1-5c-of-global-warming/
1.5C in the next 10 years . I know the Paris agreement is set on such scale but it can be seen that even if all carbon went to 0 tomorrow, we would still cross 1.5C (overshoot) is that not true ? I am not minimizing the problem the opposite