I remain skeptical that these claimed tariffs will ever take effect. But note that Mexico is the biggest US trading partner and Canada is now essentially tied for second with China.
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
You cannot act on what you think Trump will do without at least considering the maximum he can do. Having said that, he has to do at least some tariffs to make the grift work.
The first season of Trump tariffs remain.
Those were the ones in 2017 and 2018 that doubled the cost of construction supplies, drove up the price of car parts, electronics, appliances and bankrupted thousands of farmers.
Problem one. A President can create tariffs, it requires congress to repeal them.
Trump, through utter ignorance, removed the options of trade agreements. After illegally tearing up trade agreements, no one will ever trust this country to sign another trade agreement.
Who’s gonna tell Trump this is a bad idea that will wreck the economy? Elon? Elon is every bit as stupid about this shit as Trump is, and has already said he wants to burn everything down so the economy can be rebuilt with the slave labor.
You don't think he will do the one major thing he absolutely promised to do and is already planning? That suddenly people who know better will convince him otherwise? That is some strong stuff you got there.
Trump will claim China, Canada and Mexico took significant steps to curtail immigration and fentanyl (they will do nothing) and then no tariffs will be imposed. Trump will claim victory and his minions will clap til their hands bleed and talk about how amazing he is as their kids overdose.
You may be right. Frankly, I catch myself whenever I try to predict what Trump will do. He’s nuts. Anything and everything is on the table. The only thing I’m certain of is that he will be a chaos agent. That’s who he is.
Deja Vu:
“The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 raised U.S. import duties with the goal of protecting American farmers and other industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world.”
The thing I’m getting really tired of is the endless takes here saying he won’t get any blame for the ramifications of these tariffs at all. He won’t be able to blame Biden or the Democrats, full stop. He is not immune from political gravity.
I hope you’re right. Just the threat of tariffs is having a huge effect. I own a kitchenware shop in an affluent blue area, opened in Nov ‘21. Business has thrived since day 1. Post-election, my sales plummeted. In Q4! Unheard of. People are terrified. Hoping biz can weather the storm. 💙 I employ 5.
Yes! And as a small business owner, I assure you, the public is already freaking out. Sales dropped sharply after the election… in Q4! People are frightened and worried about the future to an extreme.
The company I work for is already increasing prices. They go into effect in March and it takes us several months to get it done so we are preemptively raising prices because we don’t know where we land with tariffs so even if he doesn’t raise tariffs just talk of it it’s already increasing prices.
Are you crazy? Trump is notorious for diligently following up on all the random bullshit he spouts on social media... his word is bond. That is why we have a big beautiful wall that Mexico paid for.
I'm no expert in international law... But doesn't this violate the crap out of that free trade agreement that's Trump's one international relationship success? (Abit a very very small one).
it's not really a question of international law. but the agreement allows for massive retaliation. but in a broader sense it basically lights the treaty on fire
It will be a direct abrogation of the treaty. It's also illegal (USMCA is a congressional-executive agreement and thus has the force of statutory law) but Trump obviously does not care
the issue is that if he effectively abrogates the treaty, whether or not with domestic legal authorization, both canada and mexico will hold the treaty to be in abeyance and retaliate
US exports to Canada are nearly $1T a year, against $500B in imports. you do the math
it'll cost canada more to buy that $1T in goods from other countries, but in general they can and will if the price from the EU, Australia, or, indeed, China, is cheaper than what the price from the US is
Well, he needs them in order to cut taxes and balance the budget in, what, two years?
And keep in mind these foreign companies will absorb the 25% taxes and not pass them on to American consumers. Like companies always do when faced with new expenses.
Someone told Trump that he can do whatever he wants with the funds which is why Trump is so pro tariff. He thinks it will be a 100+ billion dollar fund slush fund he and and his supporters can grift from. Even if he can’t do that, you know he will hand out exemptions to donors and sycophants.
Guessing that with something like 15% of our cars and trucks coming from Mexico, Chevy and Ford stockholders might be a little upset in the near future.
This has been my feeling all along. He hopped-up all of his supporters on misinformation and fear, while he wasn’t willing to actually fuck the economy once his dummies had stopped paying attention. ¡Vamos a ver!
Trump’s 20-30% tariffs will create higher consumer costs and start a recession. Trump’s deportation of migrants will increase labor costs of produce, basic food, construction, and every essential service. Trump is doing this to hurt Americans because he doesn’t care.
No this is his game book. He threatens and sells all the next moves as a big victory. Problem? Politicians globally and CEO’s were freaking out in 2018 but are now
prepared to backlash!
The US is going to make itself increasingly isolated and irrelevant. Other countries will just start bypassing them. US hegemony is not inevitable or irreversible.
I don’t run a country so what do I know but if I were any of these leaders I would dare Trump to do it knowing he’s either bluffing or making a mistake so big, his electorate will hand him his ass.
At his core, Trump is a coward and he knows it. Let him know you know it too.
I'm wondering if these threats are for his voters.
Then he can say the threats worked and China etc will do what he wants and then they don't need tariffs.
Or he really is stupid.
The Pugs are trying to increase revenue to offset their planned tax cut for the wealthy. And they will cut other "services" as well! 30 trillion dollar deficit be damned!
My take is,
Illegal immigration and overdose deaths have been sharply declining for the past year. When they continue to decline, Trump will claim it's because of him threatening other countries with tarriffs.
Unfortunately, this ploy will almost certainly work with low info voters.
How can you remain skeptical when Trump himself just announced that he's going to order it on day one. When he said he was going to destroy America you should believe him. This time he isn't lying.
Even just suggesting he’ll do this causes immediate harm. Prices will instantly move higher because everybody’s trying to order ahead of the tariffs and of course he’s gonna piss off our trading partners mightily.
I'm also skeptical. This strikes me as someone with dementia stringing together dimly remembered facts. Canada Mexico open borders caravan fentanyl tariffs. My mom did this when her dementia was advanced.
What's the likelihood he'll remember by the time inauguration day rolls around?
All of the suckers who voted for him because housing prices are too high, wait until the price of that Canadian lumber used to build that house jumps 25% on Jan 20.
Tariffs like this would wreck the North American economy. We didn’t vote for this shit. I know my personal response will be to boycott going to the US and buying anything American. I’m not alone. Millions will do the same. This will really hurt US border towns and isolate the US even more.
Indeed, fun as panic planning may be, everyone who isnt in this administration or a reverent trumpite is going to be in opposition. What that looks like though, ...
My take is that Trump will again impose the tariffs because he loved all the industries and countries making the efforts to win him over. Just like last time, the companies and countries with the best lobbyists and influence will do the best.
A healthy trade relationship with Mexico is America's strategic path to economic prosperity for not only today but also into our foreseeable future, especially as China economically declines over the coming years. Without trade with Mexico and Canada, our American economic future can not be secured.
Given natural resources equation with Canada I'd say both are, while not equal, hugely important. As you say, you can envision a prosperous America with greatly reduced (over time) trade with China. You really can't with Mexico and Canada.
People who disregard history , and evidence , thinking their uneducated and misguided opinions are good enough for them . It's upsetting. The willful amnesia of folks .
My guess is he enacts them for maybe 6 months before declaring crisis over. My question is, though…could a recession start within that 6 months? Could that recession have global repercussions, like a domino effect, especially given current global conditions? That may not be easy to reverse?
Trump's modus operandi has always been to run a company into the ground and then file bankruptcy. He'll run the country into the ground and blame others for his incompetence. Of course he'll bankrupt the country.
Yes. Bill is trying to calm his friends. The worst case scenario for Bill Ackman is that the tariffs will be short lived because Trump will declare victory quickly. But what about if retaliation doesn’t happen that way?
I remain convinced that this entire strategy is a scheme for wetting Trump's beak a la Don Fanucci.
Corp's will pay a sum to the "admin" (via a chain of addresses—which will not even be all that hard to trace given the legal freedom granted by the Roberts Court) to be relieved of the tariffs.
Just an observation. If a Russian agent happened to be elected President, starting fights with the United States closest neighbors, is one the fastest ways to isolate and weaken the US.
Comments
We get 1/2 our cement from Canada. I can’t WAIT to see what that does to the rebuilding process in Florida after hurricanes. 😂
" stable genius "
Those were the ones in 2017 and 2018 that doubled the cost of construction supplies, drove up the price of car parts, electronics, appliances and bankrupted thousands of farmers.
Trump, through utter ignorance, removed the options of trade agreements. After illegally tearing up trade agreements, no one will ever trust this country to sign another trade agreement.
“The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 raised U.S. import duties with the goal of protecting American farmers and other industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world.”
So, you know, eggs and gas prices.
Don’t worry about tariffs 2 months from now- look at what’s happening now that he doesn’t what you to notice.
US exports to Canada are nearly $1T a year, against $500B in imports. you do the math
And keep in mind these foreign companies will absorb the 25% taxes and not pass them on to American consumers. Like companies always do when faced with new expenses.
(uncrosses eyes)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Mexico%E2%80%93Canada_Agreement
proudly negotiated by you know who.
The guy is a genius I tell ya!
prepared to backlash!
At his core, Trump is a coward and he knows it. Let him know you know it too.
Then he can say the threats worked and China etc will do what he wants and then they don't need tariffs.
Or he really is stupid.
Illegal immigration and overdose deaths have been sharply declining for the past year. When they continue to decline, Trump will claim it's because of him threatening other countries with tarriffs.
Unfortunately, this ploy will almost certainly work with low info voters.
Hold on to your 401K, Trump is going to tank the economy on day 1.
What's the likelihood he'll remember by the time inauguration day rolls around?
Just like Trump did the Surrender of Afghanistan.
Force Trump to back down and make him your bitch for 4 years.
But it’s hard to see how he backs off the promise.
Corp's will pay a sum to the "admin" (via a chain of addresses—which will not even be all that hard to trace given the legal freedom granted by the Roberts Court) to be relieved of the tariffs.