Russia is starting to construct more concrete plans to prevent pro-EU forces in Moldova from gaining a majority in the 2025 legislative elections. One strategy is already emerging: Moscow is weaponizing Chișinău's dependence on a Transnistrian power plant for its electricity... - ThreadSky

cristiancantir.bsky.social • 90 days ago

Russia is starting to construct more concrete plans to prevent pro-EU forces in Moldova from gaining a majority in the 2025 legislative elections. One strategy is already emerging: Moscow is weaponizing Chișinău's dependence on a Transnistrian power plant for its electricity...

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cristiancantir.bsky.social•90 days ago

... imports. The power plant (Cuciurgan) uses Gazprom gas to produce electricity, which then goes to Chișinău. So now Gazprom is asking Chișinău to recognize fake debt of over 700 million dollars in exchange for gas to continue flowing via alternate routes (since Ukraine ...

cristiancantir.bsky.social•90 days ago

... is expected to stop transit in 2025) to Transnistria. Negotiations are ongoing, but MD authorities are already warning of a potential crisis in Transnistria and a hard winter in general, with potential price hikes. Whatever the outcome, a Russian goal is to open up space...

cristiancantir.bsky.social•90 days ago

... for pro-Russian groups to blame Chișinău for uncertainty and for price hikes. The positioning of more centrist groups that claim to be pro-EU, like Ion Ceban's MAN, will be crucial here. They can also claim they would be better at negotiating with Russia. If that works, ...

cristiancantir.bsky.social•90 days ago

... a pro-RU/centrist coalition in the next parliament is possible. And such a coalition won't need to be openly friendly to Russia. Even the promotion of a "pragmatic" foreign policy simply needs to create a permissive environment in which ...

cristiancantir.bsky.social•90 days ago

... Russia can reestablish some of its influence in the country, consolidate propaganda networks, and so on. So a swift and carefully-tailored response to Gazprom's actions by Chișinău and the EU is necessary to neutralize the potential success of this avenue, especially since...

cristiancantir.bsky.social•90 days ago

... there is no cross-political solidarity in Moldova regarding fighting off Russian influence: pro-RU forces for obvious reasons and centrist forces like MAN because they blame Chișinău for the state of MD-RU ties and push a vague pragmatism that ignores the RU threat.

econcunningham.bsky.social•90 days ago

I guess this all hinges on what happens in Romania.

cristiancantir.bsky.social•90 days ago

Definitely - Moldova's long-term plan is to reduce energy dependence on Russia by connecting to the EU and Romania, and a far-right/pro-Kremlin administration by Călin Georgescu will make cooperation to consolidate ties with the EU more difficult.

huckyfinn.bsky.social•90 days ago

Is the EU actively doing anything to limit Vlad's influence or do they just let him scoop up country after country?

cristiancantir.bsky.social•90 days ago

The EU Ambassador said today that Brussels is in touch with Chișinău about the potential crisis, and I suspect they're in constant communication about potential assistance. Brussels has been helping with funds to cover energy utilities for some low-income people (the "ajutor la contor" program),...

cristiancantir.bsky.social•90 days ago

... for instance, but the Kremlin's goal here is to create uncertainty and fear, which is difficult to combat in the short-term.

huckyfinn.bsky.social•90 days ago

Sure but the EU knows about these 3D chess tactics for many years. The divide and conquer strategy. Brexit happened 10 years ago. EU Intelligence agencies reported and warned about this.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-019-0227-8

cathy007.bsky.social•90 days ago

Thanks for posting
That's a good article!

h-christopher.bsky.social•90 days ago

Transnistria needs to be a NATO test run for expanding the Alliance and kicking out Russian occupiers. By force, and by Christmas of this year.

There is absolutely nothing good or useful that Russia and Putin-supporting Russians bring to the world right now. Send Russians in Transnistria packing 🇪🇺

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