It's obviously hard to actually validate the claims here, but if you think its plausible pro-LGBT lobbying tied Harris to positions which cost her votes among suburbanites in NV, then you have to think it's as plausible pro-Israel lobbying tied her to positions costing her votes among Muslims in MI. - ThreadSky

schraubd.bsky.social • 103 days ago

It's obviously hard to actually validate the claims here, but if you think its plausible pro-LGBT lobbying tied Harris to positions which cost her votes among suburbanites in NV, then you have to think it's as plausible pro-Israel lobbying tied her to positions costing her votes among Muslims in MI.

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gregorybrown.bsky.social•103 days ago

That's bonkers. Why would "pro-Israel lobbying" lead Muslims to vote for Trump? As opposed to Dem electeds (Tlaib, Hammoud) telling them to do so?

schraubd.bsky.social•103 days ago

Tlaib didn't do that, but re: Hammoud the causal line is really obvious: AIPAC --> Dems taking positions on Israel that, at best, make Dems equally bad to GOP on Israel, so one might as well vote on other bases (like shared social conservatism).

schraubd.bsky.social•103 days ago

That, plus "we need to punish Dems and then they'll learn they need to listen to us", which I find to be incredibly BAD logic that won't work out the way its proponents think it will, but there's little doubt that a significant tranche of voters thinks along those lines.

gregorybrown.bsky.social•103 days ago

There's a great deal of doubt about that. 4% of voters said they were motivated by f/p and >60% of voters said US support for Israel is "about right" or "not enough." Of those who said "too much," Harris won 2/3. Where's the "significant tranche" who voted Trump because AIPAC pushed Dems on Israel?

gregorybrown.bsky.social•103 days ago

And as @AOC never tires of pointing out, AIPAC also supports Republicans. There's no logic to the idea Harris lost because of excessive support for Israel, let alone AIPAC lobbying.

gregorybrown.bsky.social•103 days ago

In Michigan, Slotkine won. Here in NV, Rosen won. Harris lost both states. There's an empirical case that Harris lagged because she was seen by many Jewish voters as too weak in response to anti-Israel campus and urban unrest.

schraubd.bsky.social•103 days ago

The *logic* works just fine. Whether it turns out to be correct empirically is another matter. I’m skeptical it will be (I’m mostly persuaded by “it was inflation, stupid”). But it’s not transparently absurd, nor the sort of idea one could only come up with due to latent Jewbaiting tendencies.

schraubd.bsky.social•103 days ago

A significant tranche think “withholding my vote [for whatever reason] will make Dems listen to me.” This has been the logic of, eg, Greens, forever. And it does seem to reflect the views of some Muslim Trump or Stein supporters.

bjorning.bsky.social•102 days ago

It's stupid. So are most voters. This election has really refreshed and enforced my misanthropy.

liberationnow.bsky.social•103 days ago

That did not happen

schraubd.bsky.social•103 days ago

And like w/LGBT issues, it's fine to respond to AOC's arg w/e.g., "actually, AIPAC's issues are good and we shouldn't back down" or "there's little evidence this was a motivator for a critical # of voters."

But "AIPAC are smol bois and nobody would notice them if they weren't Jews" is unpersuasive.

gregorybrown.bsky.social•103 days ago

This is poor analysis. There IS exit poll evidence Trump voters did NOT reject Harris because she was "too pro Israel." If you want to blame anyone for Harris losing Dearborn, it's clearly Tlaib and Hammoud who campaigned against her.

liberationnow.bsky.social•103 days ago

Neither Tlaib nor Hammond campaigned against Harris

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