October income/spending data from BEA: After-tax income: +0.3% Consumer spending: +0.2% Consumer prices: Unchanged m/m, +3.0% y/y Core prices: +0.2% m/m, +3.5% y/y Full data: www.bea.gov/news/2023/pe... #NumbersDay - ThreadSky

bencasselman.bsky.social • 481 days ago

October income/spending data from BEA:
After-tax income: +0.3%
Consumer spending: +0.2%
Consumer prices: Unchanged m/m, +3.0% y/y
Core prices: +0.2% m/m, +3.5% y/y
Full data: https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-october-2023
#NumbersDay

Comments

bencasselman.bsky.social•481 days ago

We tend to focus on the short-term trends, but it's worth taking a step back: Inflation has come down a *lot* from its peak. Headline now down to 3% y/y. Core at 3.5%. Those are still above the Fed's target and prepandemic levels, but it's a radically different story than a year ago.

bencasselman.bsky.social•481 days ago

Zooming back in, the September spike in core services ex-housing ("supercore") reversed in October. On a 3-mo annualized basis it's running at 2.7%, a bit above core (2.4%). #NumbersDay

ar-rm4.bsky.social•481 days ago

bencasselman.bsky.social•481 days ago

Real consumer spending is... slowing? The monthly numbers are so choppy that it's hard to say much. Nominal spending grew more slowly in October, but that followed robust growth in September. You can tell a "demand cooling from the summer" story here, but I wouldn't have a ton of confidence in it.

bencasselman.bsky.social•481 days ago

After-tax income rose in October (thanks to that 0.0 on inflation), but it had been basically stagnant for the four months before that.

bencasselman.bsky.social•481 days ago

Interestingly, though, real incomes less transfer payments -- which is one of the measures NBER looks at in determining recessions -- has been growing steadily during that period. Going to have to poke at why that is.

bencasselman.bsky.social•481 days ago

Americans saved 3.8% of their after-tax income in October, up a tick from September but well below the prepandemic average. The saving rate had been rising earlier this spring, which was a potential sign of caution among consumers, but it's come back down since.

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply