OK, charts thread! Starting with the top line: Job growth has been a bit slower to start the year, but remains solid. Note, though, that these figures pre-date most of the cuts in federal government jobs. #NumbersDay #EconSky
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There is some evidence of the DOGE effect in this month's data: Federal employment fell by 10,000 (11k not seasonally adjusted). Hard to know for sure what's behind that, but it's unusual.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1 percent, which on its own isn't too troubling -- it's been bumping along around 4 percent for a while, without any obvious sign of an upward trend.
But the rest of the household survey was more discouraging. The employment rate and labor force participation rate fell, both overall and for prime-age workers.
Doesn't the Household data also show gov't employment -111K?
Could it be that the workers who took the DOGE leave/resignation deal, when you ask the gov't they're on the payroll, but when you ask them, they're unemployed?
Yep. The jobs report counts jobs/employment numbers as of the week containing the 12th day of the month. So jobs lost in the last 2 weeks of Feb aren't reflected in this report. Also workers on paid leave are still counted. This report won't show the true job loss bloodbath.
@kairyssdal.bsky.social can @marketplace.org or Make Me Smart do a segment on unemployment benefits for federal workers?
It looks like there would be huge UCFE expenditures from the fed government to the state UI agencies, plus UI agencies will be strained processing all the new applications
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Could it be that the workers who took the DOGE leave/resignation deal, when you ask the gov't they're on the payroll, but when you ask them, they're unemployed?
It looks like there would be huge UCFE expenditures from the fed government to the state UI agencies, plus UI agencies will be strained processing all the new applications