To predict the future, you need both science and imagination. Britain is cold today. But there is a real chance that global warming could make it dramatically colder, even as much of the world gets hotter. How is that possible? This article tries to explain: on.ft.com/4ja9vti - ThreadSky

henrymance.ft.com • 47 days ago

To predict the future, you need both science and imagination.

Britain is cold today. But there is a real chance that global warming could make it dramatically colder, even as much of the world gets hotter.

How is that possible? This article tries to explain: https://on.ft.com/4ja9vti

Comments

adrianhiel.bsky.social•47 days ago

This is really exceptional writing capturing the uncertainty, nuance and unbelievably high stakes - thank you.

The only slightly reassuring thing is that the solution to this uncertainty is the necessity to stop burning fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

henrymance.ft.com•47 days ago

Thanks a lot, Adrian. Yes, indeed - that is the message.

tritim.bsky.social•47 days ago

The basis of the film "The Day After Tomorrow", IIRC.

emma-worthington.bsky.social•47 days ago

Anyone have a free link that works? 🙏

chrisgoodall2.bsky.social•47 days ago

https://on.ft.com/4j9pA2m will give free access to Henry Mance's superb article for up to 5 people.

jude27.bsky.social•47 days ago

5 people! Overwhelming

chrisgoodall2.bsky.social•46 days ago

That's the way the FT 'gifting' system works. As a subscriber that's the best I can do. Actually I think the FT has just made the article free to read anyway.

chris-stevenson.bsky.social•47 days ago

Search for “Gulf Stream collapse”There’s a lots of info online. London is as far north as Montreal which is very cold. It’s kept warm by the Gulf Stream from the Southern Atlantic. Research show that this could stop or reverse with climate change
https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/what-would-happen-if-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc-collapses-how-likely

emma-worthington.bsky.social•47 days ago

Thanks, I’m an AMOC researcher at the National Oceanography Centre 🙂. I’m just interested in how the article frames it.

nmackenzie.bsky.social•47 days ago

Being a magazine article there is some focus on the researchers. It is primarily focused on Stefan Rahmstorf and his work with some mention of the degree of uncertainty about Amoc collapse. It also raises Rahmstorf’s criticism of IPCC conservatism around the possibility of Amoc collapse.

emma-worthington.bsky.social•47 days ago

Thanks

chris-stevenson.bsky.social•47 days ago

Oh cool! Thanks for your work

emma-worthington.bsky.social•47 days ago

It’s a double-edged sword seeing AMOC research in the media. On the one hand, great that people learn about it and why it’s so important, but on the other…

chris-stevenson.bsky.social•47 days ago

I guess it’s inevitable since the result of a slowing or reversal would be so epically catastrophic. Way too tempting for the media to post an image of London under a glacier

carolebell.bsky.social•29 days ago

https://archive.ph/2025.01.11-081035/https://www.ft.com/content/7711109e-0338-43ad-aada-853f058a24f1

davidho.bsky.social•46 days ago

Try this.

https://archive.ph/2025.01.11-081035/https://www.ft.com/content/7711109e-0338-43ad-aada-853f058a24f1

emma-worthington.bsky.social•46 days ago

Cheers David

elinagrigoriou.bsky.social•47 days ago

I’d really appreciate a feature on this http://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024 and bring my to life more of what these actual data points mean to business investment and strategies right now. People need to be advised and prevent loss accordingly. Happy to help w my industry hat on.

henrymance.ft.com•47 days ago

Here's another link for people who couldn't click through on the first one. Thanks to all the climate scientists who patiently helped me understand this incredibly complex subject https://www.ft.com/content/7711109e-0338-43ad-aada-853f058a24f1

elmiller.bsky.social•46 days ago

For anyone who can’t get the 2nd link to work either (me 🙋‍♀️) there is some very good information on AMOC in this thread on the other place

https://x.com/ryankatzrosene/status/1853472605023477770?s=12

snorch.bsky.social•46 days ago

Sadly “Too many other people have used it to read this article before you”

jfritte.bsky.social•47 days ago

Anyone who doesn’t know how global warming can lead to some places getting colder hasn’t understood averages, and chaotic systems.

isoma.bsky.social•43 days ago

Chaotic systems and complexity don't sound like the basics you'd expect a random stranger to get right.

tingkr.bsky.social•12 days ago

Not free now.

hakugard.bsky.social•47 days ago

This revelation is unfortunately not new, I remember learning about this in sixth form over a decade ago. Back then of course this was treated as an extreme example of climate change confined to the "nightmare scenario" of a 2C world. Unfortunately we are already sunk for 2C and 3C is more likely.

hakugard.bsky.social•47 days ago

Here's a related guardian article from 2001.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/jun/21/globalwarming.physicalsciences

chipist.bsky.social•46 days ago

We are quite a long way North as mentioned above. If we flipped the UK to the southern hemisphere the Shetland Islands would be about 190 miles from the tip of Antarctica.

helenlist.bsky.social•47 days ago

Much needed article. Thanks.

kindness75.bsky.social•47 days ago

The path into the future looks scary!

georgebas5.bsky.social•47 days ago

Will this happen more often as average temperatures rise? When I wrote about the killer freeze and heatwave of 1936, people thanked me for proving that climate change was a hoax 🙈 https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/07/20/heat-wave-1936/

alexandra19.bsky.social•47 days ago

You’ll be saying that as you’re burning alive.

fromtherocks.bsky.social•47 days ago

Quite. Already in process - 15% down so far.

Have you seen Smolders et al,. 2024 giving 90% probability of collapse between 2037-2064 with 2050 mid-point?

See also Clark et al,. 2016 on recovery time...

If we let this happen its game over for our present civilisation.

This is not news sadly.