Are you going to call Forbes a liar www.forbes.com/sites/eriksh... - ThreadSky

kaitensatsuma.bsky.social • 11 days ago

Are you going to call Forbes a liar

https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2024/12/31/us-credit-card-defaults-hit-post-great-recession-high/

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lugoz.bsky.social•11 days ago

No: Different time periods. Politico is talking about 2021-22. The Forbes article, which references a FT article is referring to 2024.
Yes: While I cannot read the paywalled FT article, it’s probably referring to dollars vs rates.

kaitensatsuma.bsky.social•11 days ago

oh, 12ft.io tends to be a good way around most paywalls

kaitensatsuma.bsky.social•11 days ago

And what would you think is happening if FRED is tracking a near halving in personal savings rates prior to 2021 (Img 1) a sudden and steep decline in household savings that's only just started to recover (Img 2) while charge off rates and debt have gone up? (3, 4)

People are *depending* on credit

kaitensatsuma.bsky.social•11 days ago

People were - are using personal and credit debt to try to make it to the end of the day, or else there might not be the end of a day, at least not with food or a home to go back to.

We have the hindsight of slightly more optimistic data today, but 3 years of "The economy is fine" wasn't it

lugoz.bsky.social•11 days ago

Figure 1 tells me that savings go up during recessions. Figure 2 tells me that people saved during COVID. I don't want any of those two to drive up savings.

kaitensatsuma.bsky.social•11 days ago

Figure 1 tells you that even after the "$2,000" household savings has reset to a level below 2021 (3.8%) which was last matched seen in 2008, the last crash.

Figure 2 shows those savings being bottomed out and only now starting to recover - while 3 & 4 cover massive increases in outstanding debt

kaitensatsuma.bsky.social•11 days ago

I helpfully added the links to the charts at FRED in the Alt Text though I appreciate not everybody bothers to check it

lugoz.bsky.social•11 days ago

Since credit card debt is much higher than in the past, it makes sense for absolute dollar delinquency to be higher than in the past.

kaitensatsuma.bsky.social•11 days ago

"Credit card debt is higher than in the past, so it makes sense for absolute dollar delinquency to be higher than in the past" is the point - it was trending downward but with a confluence of forces it's exploded

Screenshots from the dataset - I'm not sure if it's a 1 time free, so grabbing it all

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