He needs about 35% of the vote. All it takes is for people to decide Labour "aren't any different" then to stay home or vote some other way while others think "it's time for someone else to have a chance" and we get Farage as PM. We can see it happening already.
Yes, and in order to get that you only need about 35% of the vote.
The current government has a huge majority gained with 33.7% of the vote.
Not one MP won a majority of the votes for their seat.
If Reform can get 30-40% of the votes in every seat, that will give them the government.
But it has to be exactly the right 35% not 35% spread across the country. Johnson only got ~ 1% more of the vote in 2019 than May got in 2017 but he got an 80 seat majority by winning many seats with tiny margins while she lost her majority. Its tactics not %.
It is tactical.
Voters have turned away from Labour and will vote for alternatives, such as Green, or not vote. Many traditional Labour voters think Reform represent them better, we see bots trying to re-enforce those opinions.
Reform are already ahead of traditional Tory party that will continue.
Comments
The current government has a huge majority gained with 33.7% of the vote.
Not one MP won a majority of the votes for their seat.
If Reform can get 30-40% of the votes in every seat, that will give them the government.
Voters have turned away from Labour and will vote for alternatives, such as Green, or not vote. Many traditional Labour voters think Reform represent them better, we see bots trying to re-enforce those opinions.
Reform are already ahead of traditional Tory party that will continue.