Lots of talk about Tesla's inflated stock value as an automaker. Usually no mention of its Megapack business.
But its net rev from "Energy gen and storage" grew 145% Y/Y in Q4; 15% of 2024 gross profit.
31.4 GWh deployed in 2024 (+114% Y/Y).
What's a fair stock value for that? Sincere Q. 🔌💡
But its net rev from "Energy gen and storage" grew 145% Y/Y in Q4; 15% of 2024 gross profit.
31.4 GWh deployed in 2024 (+114% Y/Y).
What's a fair stock value for that? Sincere Q. 🔌💡
Comments
Spun-off c/b valued at $15-21B using storage sector metrics. EG&S=~10.4% TSLA rev. so say 332mil shares (frm TSLAs 3.2B)
So theoretical PPS of $45-64 (ex TSLA intangibles, advantages etc.)
They prob at $1.5B EBITDA in 2025 (25% gross margin, 10% opex). Let’s assume 2026 grows like 2025. So $3b in 2026.
The multiple is an art. let’s assume batteries sell like crazy like NVDA’s chips.
Tesla energy could be = $3Bx39 =$117B
So a tenth of their market cap!