Also, here's one I made earlier about how close the seat projections tend to be. 2015 was a bit further off, but largely because the polls themselves understated the Liberals by 3%:
https://bsky.app/profile/mojo87.bsky.social/post/3lmj25yauxc26
https://bsky.app/profile/mojo87.bsky.social/post/3lmj25yauxc26
Reposted from
Joe Moed
Pretty good - here were CBC Poll Tracker's final predictions in the last two elections (other models would probably have similar results):
2021 projection: L 155, C 119, N 32, B 31
2021 result: L 160, C 119, N 24, B32
2019 projection: L 141, C 121, B 39, N34
2019 result: L 157, C121, B 32, N 24
2021 projection: L 155, C 119, N 32, B 31
2021 result: L 160, C 119, N 24, B32
2019 projection: L 141, C 121, B 39, N34
2019 result: L 157, C121, B 32, N 24
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