New paper on the most disproportionate UK election: how Labour doubled its seat share with a 1.6 point increase in vote share in 2024!
With @profjanegreen.bsky.social
Out now in @politicalquarterly.bsky.social
Link: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.13504
Short thread below🧵
With @profjanegreen.bsky.social
Out now in @politicalquarterly.bsky.social
Link: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.13504
Short thread below🧵
Comments
1. They lost 'surplus' votes in safe seats
2. Won seats, esp. from Tories, with low vote shares
3. Outperformed in Scotland
We provide new evidence and three explanations for this outcome, all in the context of anti-incumbent voting
(1/6)
⬇️ LD preferers voting Lab in Lab-Con races, and vice-versa
⬇️ some sincere Green voting in safe Lab seats
This reduced 'wasted votes' where Labour didn't win & surplus votes in safe seats
(2/6)
⬇️ voters who prefer Reform still voted for Reform in Conservative v. Labour races; and Conservative preferers voted Tory in Labour vs. Reform seats
(3/6)
⬇️ in most seats won by Labour from the Conservatives in England, there are close to two 'effective parties' on the right; on the left, the Lab/ LD/ Green vote is more concentrated
Allowing Labour to win these seats with fewer votes
(4/6)
Between 2021 and 2024, the percentage of Scottish voters disapproving of both the Scottish and UK governments went from 18.3% to 58.7%
⬇️ These voters were significantly more likely to vote Labour
(5/6)
Changes in tactical voting, fragmentation on the right, and incumbency effects in Scotland and GB will matter most now!
(6/6)