To be clear, you’re 100% right. That said, the top pick has gone to a team with a <2% chance of getting it 4 times in the 41 years of the lottery, which is far above statistical expectations
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There's a 5% chance of the top pick going to a team with <2% chance of getting it. Before flattening, it was 5.5%. That's a lot closer to the 9.7% of times it's happened than the implied 2% vs 10% anomaly.
If you’re going to have this be the metric then you’d need to sum up the total prob for all teams below that 2% threshold. So this iteration of the odds would be ~5% but I know that was higher in the previous versions of lotto odds
That would only be if the lotte ry was two teams and the other had a 98% chance. When 5 teams each lottery have ~ 2% chance, that adds up to a 10% chance per. It’s really not a leap
Not really, the top three have a 52.6% chance of a top 4 pick and the fourth team is down at 48.1%. On average 2/4 would be in the top four, but some years it'll be one, some years it'll be three.
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