Like after all school shootings, I've already seen calls for "more mental health screening."
So sadly need to repost this again.
1. Mental illness predicts being a victim more than an injurer.
2. We CANNOT determine risk factors for shootings by looking AT SHOOTERS. It's a core stats fallacy:
So sadly need to repost this again.
1. Mental illness predicts being a victim more than an injurer.
2. We CANNOT determine risk factors for shootings by looking AT SHOOTERS. It's a core stats fallacy:
Comments
It's an ugly term, but it is a HUGE fallacy people make ALL the time.
Looking at shooters == don't see all those who DON'T shoot w that trait.
Looking at shooters tells us "how likely is a shooter to be someone with this trait."
RADICALLY diff question.
How many NFL players (100%) are men doe not tell us how many men are NFL players (~0%).
Same here.
1. Stop making baserate errors (big percent change likely means NOT that important).
2. Stop selecting on the dependent variable.
(My 1Ls this afternoon are about to get an unexpected stats class.)
The question is it worth adding a level of scrutiny, or inconvenience to the sub group?
I wouldn't suggest jailing those with Blue Eyes, but having a more detailed background check might not be unreasonable.
and she's supposed to be the "normal" GOP that people want to return to.
who endorsed Trump after all, and wrote something "finish them"or some shit on a bomb destined for Palestinians.
fuck her into the sun. all of them.
this is assuming we prevail this year of course. christ.
i wonder who they'll run if he doesn't. seems to me they can basically go with Kemp or another freak show.
But that’s partly bc I’m indifferent to false positives when it comes to denying gun permits, and think the costs of the false negatives are far more important.
87% of sex crimes against kids are commit by white males.
The culture (or lack there of) associated with the demographic is definitely a large part of the issue. Cause the other factors are faced universally by people who don't commit these crimes.
Def far better than "mentally ill," but still prob(shooter|AR-15) <<< prob(AR-15|shooter).
It’s such a low probability event that any trait of a shooter will still be shared by hundreds of thousands of students who don’t carry out attacks.
But millions of kids have probably gotten in a fight and never gone on to shoot anyone.
—Prisons, Prosecutors, and the Politics of Punishment
—expressing, “So sadly need to repost this again.”
—your labour in the field of education, research, data as you
[try] “to understand the causes of mass incarceration…” and more
Ultimately, we are staggered:
A 14-year old boy
Humans are about to engage in the same thing they have done 1000s of times expecting a different result will happen.
We have always done this, it has always failed, we will do it harder.
Politicians soundbites solve nothing
Demand actual solutions beyond prayer