It’s worth noting that we have been hearing for years of the Russian steamroller, Russian can’t lose wars, and other such nonsense. And Syria deflates that myth in a matter of days.
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It's been remarked on that several Unbeatable Armies (Russia, Turkey, China) have no recent combat experience outside of asymmetric actions against guerilla groups. Equally, guerilla armies tend to bounce back after large foreign armies leave (Afghanistan, Iraq, now Syria).
Armies can win peace in a state-to-state conflict, for example defeating Russia and taking away it's ability to wage war on it's neighbors is the only way to peace. It's only when military occupation is used to try and coerce entire populations that never ends well, no matter the motives.
Even then, you need a plan to mitigate downstream risk in the defeated state. Post WWI Germany, post Desert Storm Iraq, defeating them didn't end the risk. Armies can create the landscape, but peace plans with diplomatic objectives win lasting peace.
Only thing outsiders really can do is try and not create unfavorable conditions like Versailles treaty. Looking at Russia, they are defeated only to go back into their old destructive ways again and again, all we really can do is defeat them and hope the people learn eventually.
Ukraine absolutely determines the terms of its armistice. No question. Afterwards, though, the Russian regime may well change. The realities in the country could change. The regime may choose to become more militaristic. NATO needs to be prepared to navigate those changes, including with diplomacy.
There should be a dual track approach which is to deter Russia through fear of consequences, those that it lacked in 2008, 2014 and 2022 to go forward with military action. Diplomatic incentives can help but there should be no naivety there like with Iran's nuclear program.
Another lesson is that these are not localized conflicts.
At H/W level, the military supply chain is globalized—we see Chinese & Iranian tech in Russian drones, and will see Russian tech in future DPRK weapons.
At S/W level, what happens in Ukraine affects the Levant, and will affect PRC+Taiwan.
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It's another thing entirely to administrate a civil society.
The first relies on ruthlessness.
The second relies on some degree of regard for the value of human life.
Or something like that. 🤷
Armies don't win peace.
At H/W level, the military supply chain is globalized—we see Chinese & Iranian tech in Russian drones, and will see Russian tech in future DPRK weapons.
At S/W level, what happens in Ukraine affects the Levant, and will affect PRC+Taiwan.