Hi All, just released my free weekend update. Some historical analysis added to the mix today. We are now just over three years since the Russian full scale invasion was launched, and it often takes three years to understand what will determine the outcome of a war. open.substack.com/pub/phillips... - ThreadSky

phillipspobrien.bsky.social • 8 days ago

Hi All, just released my free weekend update. Some historical analysis added to the mix today. We are now just over three years since the Russian full scale invasion was launched, and it often takes three years to understand what will determine the outcome of a war. https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/weekend-update-128-the-third-year?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios

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deirdredonovan.bsky.social•8 days ago

Zelensky must realize this has been a delay tactic. EU, UK and Baltics must acknowledge this and provide all the air defenses and weapons necessary to defeat Russia. No more pipe dreams.This is Genocide for 3+ years by Putin. A new alliance without America must be formed. No more wasting time.

phillipspobrien.bsky.social•8 days ago

The short war fallacy that governed western analysis before Feb 2022 was ahistorical and completely wrongheaded. Wars are hardly ever won by the forces on hand when they start. They are won by the force generated after they begin.

anthonymayer.bsky.social•8 days ago

This may also be true for pre-industrial societies? I’m thinking Wallenstein …

inventinghistory.substack.com•8 days ago

I think what you're saying is that
not lose = pre-war TTP/Equipment + will to fight
win = sustainment + adaptability + will to fight

Adaptability = new TTPs/Equipment to counter adversary
Will to fight = Positive leadership + Conflict perceived legitimacy + Economic stability

jfb1066.bsky.social•8 days ago

They are sometimes lost by the forces on hand at the beginning, though.
In which case there’s no time or need to generate new ones.

johndalton1108.bsky.social•8 days ago

West draws wrong conclusions bc in the last few decades it fought against nations with little tech means. Gulf war; Iraq war; Taliban over throw a few examples.

adriancjr.bsky.social•8 days ago

Only the first Gulf war was a short one.

johndalton1108.bsky.social•8 days ago

Later parts were insurgencies..technically not war

adriancjr.bsky.social•8 days ago

The same way that Russia is not at war, it's a special military operation 🤷‍♂️

pleyfrei.bsky.social•8 days ago

It also seems the NATO planners were still too much fixed on the scenario of standard NATO formations against standard Warsaw Pact formations. That might have worked in 1990, but technology and weapons have changed a lot in those 30+ years since.

justanothermaleusr.bsky.social•8 days ago

Besides the UKR making an obscene amount of UAVs, their efforts in scaling up/producing new "stuff" is also taking off in a big way. (Not just based on the "Danish model")

Oh, great substack! I love it when you combine history with the present & extract lessons.
Ty!

neil1066.bsky.social•8 days ago

Fucking hell, Phil, I haven't finished The Strategists yet. You're turning out books faster than I can read them.

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