.....and then the RW of Labour formed a new party the SDP to ensure a LW Labour government under Michael Foot would have no chance of happening & we ended up with 18 years of Tories. Same thing happened in 2017 & 2019 with Corbyn. Oh what a brilliant undemocratic FPTP electoral system we have.
Last year on a turnout of 60%, Labour got 33.7% of those who voted, winning 63% of seats. No poll predicted that, but how could it? It's the system which is unfit for purpose, not the pollsters. If just 20% of eligibile voters can deliver a thumping electoral majority, the room for error is high.
There are similarities between today and the '79 to '83 parliament regarding polling. We have a new party splitting the vote on one side. Reform today on the right in a similar way to the SDP on the left back in the early 80's. But who knows, maybe we'll have a PM Farage, but I strongly doubt it.
Very true, but I think Labour has a real problem. Polls give percentages. If you look at the real numbers, you realise they got less votes in their landslide than in 2019. They won because the other team didn't turn up, or they were fighting over the ball with a team in the same colours.
And even more meaningless, a year later, in December 1981, the SDP peaked at 50.5% to enjoy a 27-point lead over both Labour and the Conservatives. The bookies then installed the SDP as favourites to form the next government. I won't give any spoilers to what happened next.
Con poll numbers were recovering long before the Falklands war started - indeed they had several polling leads by late March 1982. Historians are now generally agreed that Thatcher would likely have won without the Falklands war.
The nadir was Dec 81, with several polls in the 20s and a low of 23. They were polling consistently in the 30s by the end of Jan 82. That coincides with interest rates falling from Nov 81, growth returning in Q3 and accelerating in Q4 81 and inflation peaking in Jan 82.
She certainly benefitted from it, and somebody had to resign for it, so Lord Carrington did the honourable thing by falling on his sword for allowing the invasion. Such is politics.
Thatcher lost half a million votes in 1983, so I'm not sure the Falklands War was the critical factor it's often made out to be.
More likely it was down to Labour being split by the SDP and having an unpopular leader and manifesto, costing them roughly as many seats as the Tories gained.
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Why on earth would someone choose not to try to eliminate that particular threat... someone not also on the take, that is?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election
Polls change over time and "events dear boy".
I doubt Labour are taking us to war anywhere soon. Other than Greenland to protect a NATO ally?!!
The Tory vote only really started going up during the Falklands but I suspect they would have won anyway.
More likely it was down to Labour being split by the SDP and having an unpopular leader and manifesto, costing them roughly as many seats as the Tories gained.