As this is becoming a circular argument, i will give you this link to perhaps re-align your thinking and sign off: www.csis.org/analysis/dow... - ThreadSky

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jonnyjohns.bsky.social • 29 days ago

As this is becoming a circular argument, i will give you this link to perhaps re-align your thinking and sign off:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/down-not-out-russian-economy-under-western-sanctions

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bearmarshal.bsky.social•27 days ago

Finally finished reading it. It's a report on Western sanctions. Key points as I read it:
- 2014 sanctions were largely unsuccessful
- 2022 sanctions were too slow and not all of them productive, but are today having a significant impact on Russia's economy
- We shouldn't roll back sanctions

bearmarshal.bsky.social•27 days ago

What it isn't:
- A report on the manufacturing capability of the Russian military industry
- A report on the state of the Russian economy
- A financial forecast

bearmarshal.bsky.social•27 days ago

I don't disagree with conclusions of the report at large, but I would've liked some source criticism when they say Russia "registered double-digit inflation-adjusted growth" and that "salaries went up [...] 8.7 percent in real terms", citing the official Russian government statistics.

bearmarshal.bsky.social•27 days ago

As Prune has repeatedly pointed out, Russia is pretty blatantly fudging their inflation numbers by e.g. removing items from the reference shopping basket, and we simply can't know what the real inflation rate is at.

bearmarshal.bsky.social•27 days ago

Likewise, their report on the state of the military industry fails to mention that they're only looking at financial markers and aren't at all considering how productive it is. Reports from the OSInt community have shown that it's a mixed bag.

bearmarshal.bsky.social•27 days ago

Taken together, the report on the current state of Russia comes off as a bit rosy, and stops short of making any forecasts. The latter is probably intentional, I think the authors think the economy is worsening, but don't want to speculate in this academic report.

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