Quick thought about this great interview. In it Satya Nadella says that he doesn't believe AI models will be a winner-take-all type of market. Here's what i think.. 🧵 youtu.be/4GLSzuYXh6w?... - ThreadSky

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engid.bsky.social • 2 days ago

Quick thought about this great interview. In it Satya Nadella says that he doesn't believe AI models will be a winner-take-all type of market. Here's what i think.. 🧵

https://youtu.be/4GLSzuYXh6w?si=D83Kh6Qf4wNfo7OD

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engid.bsky.social•2 days ago

I think this is interesting because in some sense it's hypothesizing that models will literally start to evolve separately, due to different sources of human reinforcement (RLHF) and different environmental constraints.

engid.bsky.social•2 days ago

Examples of this are the sanctions that lead DeepSeek to innovate on optimizing their RL training and Mixture of Experts model, or the emphasis that Anthropic has put on training Claude on math and coding challenges allowing them to capture a huge portion of the software engineering market (Cursor).

engid.bsky.social•2 days ago

I think there is some truth to this. LLM's seem to be very sensitive to their training regimes and fine tuning, so much so that people report the models have different personalities. As customers gravitate towards their preferred models, this will increase their differences...

engid.bsky.social•2 days ago

as the usage creates a flywheel of RLHF. The real question is, is it possible to capture different personalities in a single giant model, so that it can serve the needs and expectations of many different customer groups?

engid.bsky.social•2 days ago

My guess is that market pressures will continue to be fierce enough that models evolve differently, and bubbles of cultural differences continue to grow larger as customers choose models on their perceived and measured strengths and weaknesses.

engid.bsky.social•2 days ago

I'm hopeful that there will be a healthy market of different models, because it will lead to a more democratic future where AI is able to adapt to the needs of every group of humans, and increase the wellbeing of us all.

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