The effects of abortion bans vary tremendously across counties and demographic groups. New @nber.org working paper with Daniel Dench and @mayrapinedat.bsky.social. [1/10] https://www.nber.org/papers/w33548
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We use estimates of state resident abortions from @imaddowzimet.bsky.social to show that the national rise in abortions is driven by increases in abortions in states where abortion access expanded after Dobbs. Meanwhile, resident abortions fell in states that restricted access. [3/10]
These abortion numbers don't capture abortion pills being mailed into these states. With incomplete abortion surveillance, we turn to births and see a corresponding pattern, suggesting that everyone who wanted an abortion was not finding a way to get one. [4/10]
We use a county-level analysis to learn who is most affected by the bans. Texas’ ban left Houstonians with a 600-mile drive to Kansas, where appointment availability was constrained. But residents of El Paso had less than 30 miles to drive to New Mexico, where appointments were available. [5/10]
Within ban states, births increased the most where distances increased the most. The effects were additionally mediated by appointment availability in the destination. [6/10]
We throw fancier models at the data and essentially see the same thing: distance and appointment availability mediate the effects of abortion bans. [7/10]
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