New overview of @IEA outlooks vs reality from my friend @ChristianOnRE e.o. Nuclear consistently overestimated and solar underestimated. The supplement gives you an excel with the data to make your own graphs. - ThreadSky

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aukehoekstra.bsky.social • 17 days ago

New overview of @IEA
outlooks vs reality from my friend @ChristianOnRE
e.o. Nuclear consistently overestimated and solar underestimated.

The supplement gives you an excel with the data to make your own graphs.

Comments

robbieandrew.bsky.social•16 days ago

Should it surprise us that forecasts based entirely on government statements of policy on Nuclear have been too optimistic while those based entirely on government statements of policy on Solar have been too pessimistic? What's more interesting is the IEA continuing to use this basis.

nielsd1.bsky.social•17 days ago

It’s clear what technology will be the backbone of our energy system. The difference between the two graphs would be even more striking if the same property was shown on the vertical axis.

aukehoekstra.bsky.social•17 days ago

Yeah, didn't get around to adding it for nuclear. But with the data in the supplement, anybody can do that!

spinat5000.bsky.social•17 days ago

Your version of this graph brought me to the solar industry a few years ago. Thanks for that.

aukehoekstra.bsky.social•17 days ago

This makes my day. Honestly. I'm logging off now to enjoy it :-)

tmuehl.bsky.social•17 days ago

To me, proponents of @iea.org usually come across as very pro-nuclear. Question is, whether this overestimation is a deliberate lobbying-mechanism. Also, which organisations to follow for more independent forecasts?

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