THREAD
My deep dive on @IEA #WEO24
🌄Solar up 4x by 2030, top ⚡️ source by 2033
🥇Clean energy +44% by 2030, top *energy* source by "mid-30s"
🛢️EVs displace 6mb/d by 2030 (⏫4mb/d last yr)
⛰️Fossil fuels peak by 2030
🌡️Warming 2.4C(🔽 2.6C 2021 ⏬ 3.5C 2015)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-solar-surge-will-send-coal-power-tumbling-by-2030-iea-data-reveals/
1/13
My deep dive on @IEA #WEO24
🌄Solar up 4x by 2030, top ⚡️ source by 2033
🥇Clean energy +44% by 2030, top *energy* source by "mid-30s"
🛢️EVs displace 6mb/d by 2030 (⏫4mb/d last yr)
⛰️Fossil fuels peak by 2030
🌡️Warming 2.4C(🔽 2.6C 2021 ⏬ 3.5C 2015)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-solar-surge-will-send-coal-power-tumbling-by-2030-iea-data-reveals/
1/13
Comments
Rapid solar growth's nothing new – it's up 40x since 2010 – but still amazing to see it becoming world's top power source by 2033
📈As ever, IEA boosted solar outlook again, up another 30%…
⏩…and solar's beaten IEA's 2015 outlook for 2050, 27yrs early!?
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-solar-surge-will-send-coal-power-tumbling-by-2030-iea-data-reveals/
2/13
Solar & other clean power sources are helping fuel a new "age of electricity", the IEA says, where energy uses are rapidly electrifying & pushing fossil fuels towards peaks by 2030
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-solar-surge-will-send-coal-power-tumbling-by-2030-iea-data-reveals/
3/13
Why is clean power surging? It’s the economy, stupid.
"It is now cheaper to build onshore wind and solar…than new fossil-fuel plants almost everywhere…even when considering…investment required to cope with their variability"
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-solar-surge-will-send-coal-power-tumbling-by-2030-iea-data-reveals/
4/13
The "age of electricity", with the "inherent efficiency" of rising electrification and reliance on clean power, is helping temper energy demand growth, even as demand for energy services surges
This is not a paradox, it's the primary energy fallacy!
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-solar-surge-will-send-coal-power-tumbling-by-2030-iea-data-reveals/
5/13
#WEO24
You can see the impact of the "age of electricity" in this chart from @fbirol's excellent summary of the outlook: surging electricity demand going 6x faster than (and helping to temper) energy demand growth
https://x.com/fbirol/status/1846400954536460734
6/13
Interestingly – and relatedly – as well as boosting solar, storage, EVs, etc, successive WEOs have raised the outlook for electrification rates
Electrification is now set to rise 50% by 2050 (vs doubling if climate pledges met)
*bonus (badly drawn) chart*
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-solar-surge-will-send-coal-power-tumbling-by-2030-iea-data-reveals/
7/13
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