Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse www.carbonbrief.org/... 2/10 - ThreadSky

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org • 98 days ago

Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse

https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-sets-a-new-record-as-the-first-year-above-1-5c/

2/10

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drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•98 days ago

There’s also the global energy crisis, which hit UK particularly hard due to reliance on imported gas, crushing household (and govt) finances

UK has spent £140bn on gas since the crisis began (!)

Shift to net-zero would massively reduce exposure to intl fossil fuel prices

3/10

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•98 days ago

So what does the CCC actually recommend?

It calls for an 87% cut in emissions during the 7th carbon budget 2038-2042, inc intl aviation and shipping, and on a path to net-zero by 2050

That's a reduction of three-quarters from current levels (!)
4/10

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•98 days ago

How would UK get there?

CCC at pains to say it only offers advice – it's up to govt to decide on policy

Still, it offers a "balanced pathway" to prove net-zero is deliverable & cost-effective

This would see emissions plummet across economy, apart from aviation/farming
5/10

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•98 days ago

CCC now says electrification is THE key tool for net-zero

Heat, road transport (inc ALL HGVs), + even most industrial heat would be electric

Electricity would double, fossil fuels nearly disappear – and energy waste cut in half

Yet UK would get more "energy services"
6/10

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•98 days ago

The CCC says investing in electrification would come with significant upfront costs – building windfarms, expanding the grid, installing heat pumps

But EVs will be cheaper than petrol in short order

And investment would pay dividends by cutting bill for fossil fuel imports
7/10

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•98 days ago

Moreover – missed by basically all the news coverage – the costs of this transition are radically lower than the CCC thought just 5yrs ago

Investment needs halved from £1.3tn to £0.7tn
Net costs down by three-quarters from £0.4tn to £0.1tn

Those are huge shifts!
8/10

haraldeff.bsky.social•98 days ago

📌

fluidsguru.bsky.social•98 days ago

Having just sat through a presentation from Daimler Trucks Australia last week, electrifying all HGVs with existing battery density is asking a lot.

timlagor.bsky.social•97 days ago

But if we did that then people would start putting solar panels on their roofs faster and that would collapse the energy profiteering

johnranford.bsky.social•97 days ago

Agriculture???

Let me know if you think this is rubbish...

RethinkX projects that land emissions would be much reduced as alternative proteins/meats become cheaper than farmed meats. They predict a reduction of demand for livestock by 90% over a decade.

https://www.rethinkx.com/food-and-agriculture

chrisvonsimson.bsky.social•97 days ago

Seems to me this is the most shocking opportunity cost.
Do nothing = perhaps £5-30bn / year
Go net zero = £0.4 / year = 10x cheaper, or better

Plus all the other benefits we would like.

sioldridge.bsky.social•97 days ago

There's also the enormous cost of not acting—which means you can't take the normal approach to investment appraisal of assuming everything stays the same if you don't proceed.
https://bsky.app/profile/sioldridge.bsky.social/post/3lglaqhulf32t

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