(from the Catalist "what happened") one thing Catalist is very clear about is that the new voter swing wasn't the only thing that happened, Harris also lost a ton of votes with returning voters it was both/and stuff but I think "outsized role" is right for RFK catalist.us/whathappened... - ThreadSky

michaelcaley.bsky.social • 13 days ago

(from the Catalist "what happened")

one thing Catalist is very clear about is that the new voter swing wasn't the only thing that happened, Harris also lost a ton of votes with returning voters

it was both/and stuff

but I think "outsized role" is right for RFK https://catalist.us/whathappened2024/

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andreaandrea.bsky.social•13 days ago

I feel this is criminally under-discussed and was truly insane at the time for Dems to not make a deal with RFK. He was polling at up to 15%!!! Just give yourself the best chance to win election, then shank him later. To me the math is clear that this swung the election.

achedes.bsky.social•13 days ago

Making a deal with RFK Jr would be pretty deflating to me as a dem voter. I’d vote in 2024 but you’d have trouble getting me to come back after that.

andreaandrea.bsky.social•13 days ago

Are you a moderate, leftist, etc? Defeating trump in 2024 had to be paramount, Dems should’ve made deal with RFK, if they won then they could just minimize his power or outright shank him once he was no longer needed

conorsen.bsky.social•13 days ago

I don’t know if it was ever formalized but by spring 2024 it was clear Dems weren’t willing to offer RFK anything to include him in the coalition (not saying this was or wasn’t the right decision).

michaelcaley.bsky.social•13 days ago

yeah I think probably Harris offers him HHS and he accepts she's probably favored from there?

altho I will say I'm somewhat skeptical he would have accepted, in particular because the right play for Harris would have been to stab him in the back in the lame duck

conorsen.bsky.social•13 days ago

Ex ante there’s no way Kamala does that.

benjaminkabak.com•13 days ago

As Conor said, no way Harris does this, and it's tough to game out. The pro-science folks really despise RFK Jr. who is a legitimate nut getting people killed. I guess the theory is he could do his woo woo food dyes stuff while others protect vaccine, but giving him HHS turns off a lot of loyal Dems

michaelcaley.bsky.social•13 days ago

Democrats are also just not in the business of cutting deals in public, there was so much elite revulsion to his explicit quid pro quo

benjaminkabak.com•13 days ago

It was both the right and the wrong decision.

amywsalvucci.bsky.social•13 days ago

coopting rfk - fine maybe, but then cut him loose like a normal administration

cboehm.bsky.social•13 days ago

Wondering how many of these supposedly RFK-following people heard him speak for more than ~10 seconds or so, or knew anything about him beyond what they saw in a 30-second campaign ad

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