So in either of your scenarios I'm programming clients' systems in a self-consumption mode (basically), and there's no significant difference between them when it comes to the effect on peak capacity requirements for the grid.
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I'm sure I agree in principle that tweaking the tarriffs would incentivize more solar/battery uptake in general. But that can be done with import tarrifs without changing NBT.
However if you want to incentivize exporting battery to grid then you need times of day and year where exports rates are much higher than imports. And from experience so far they will need to be greatly simplified to be practical to implement.
We're mostly on the same page there, monthly/hourly price changes are crazy. Seasonal/thrice-daily is the way to go. Better to have predictable evening exports in June/July and lower payouts in Aug/Sept so you can set it & forget it and have more reliable capacity in midsummer heat waves.
The most important point is that cost shifts are unavoidable as long as midday prices are high - because the first 1-2kW of solar is almost always self-consumed and costs 15c/kWh, vs 40c from the grid.
Even zero export compensation can't kill that competition. People will choose cheaper power.
Starting from that perspective, the key question is how to reduce daytime rates and the associated cost shifts without stopping solar uptake.
And the answer to that is raise peak rates proportionally, including exports, to encourage batteries to maximize peak supply and minimize solar oversupply
I'm picturing a predictive algo based on historical load - so if peak use is typically 8-12kWh and your battery has 15kWh, it might discharge at 150% of load, adjusting up or down towards the end of the peak so it gets as close as possible to full discharge at the end.
Based on what I've seen so far I'm not very optimistic about algorithms, but it's still early. (One thing I also don't like as an installer is that I can't tell a client whether it's working correctly on any given day, to the extent it's a black box.)
Fair enough. I'm optimistic that supportive rates can drive investment into better programming, but it's hard to prove that without the rates in place.
Data vis is key...a daily graph showing charging and discharging price differentials would go a long way to showing the value.
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Even zero export compensation can't kill that competition. People will choose cheaper power.
And the answer to that is raise peak rates proportionally, including exports, to encourage batteries to maximize peak supply and minimize solar oversupply
That boosts capacity 1.5x
Data vis is key...a daily graph showing charging and discharging price differentials would go a long way to showing the value.