NEW PAPER in the BMJ (with richarddriley.bsky.social) - 1st in a 3 part series on the ‘Evaluation of clinical prediction models’. Part 1 is ‘from development to external validation’. —> tinyurl.com/n8fy5xvj - ThreadSky

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gscollins.bsky.social • 417 days ago

NEW PAPER in the BMJ (with https://richarddriley.bsky.social) - 1st in a 3 part series on the ‘Evaluation of clinical prediction models’. Part 1 is ‘from development to external validation’.
—> http://tinyurl.com/n8fy5xvj

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gscollins.bsky.social•417 days ago

We discuss how to make the most of the available data to develop & evaluate a prediction model in one 1 or more target populations for model deployment.

gscollins.bsky.social•417 days ago

Splitting data at the moment of model development should generally be avoided (particularly for regression-based models) as it discards data leading to a more unreliable model (see here on the ‘Multiverse of Madness’ -> http://tinyurl.com/8xrm56e3)

gscollins.bsky.social•417 days ago

Splitting data will often leave too few data to reliably evaluate its performance (resulting in highly variable model performance) - see here more on model instability —> http://tinyurl.com/4scahjp9

gscollins.bsky.social•417 days ago

Concerted efforts should be made to use all available data to build the best possible model, with better use of resampling or cross-validation methods and internal-external validation to evaluate model performance and generalisability across clusters
—> http://tinyurl.com/2p9eaav

gscollins.bsky.social•417 days ago

Evaluating the performance of a prediction model is critically important and validation studies are essential, as a poorly developed model could be harmful or exacerbate disparities in either provision of health care or subsequent healthcare outcomes.

gscollins.bsky.social•417 days ago

Evaluating model performance (calibration & discrimination) should be carried out in datasets that are representative of the intended target populations for the model’s implementation (see more here on targeted validation in intended settings
—> http://tinyurl.com/yckx3f73)

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