Intelligence is now saying that China will most likely invade Taiwan this year, most likely within the next few months. www.19fortyfive.com/2025/04/chin... - ThreadSky

b21raider.bsky.social • 6 days ago

Intelligence is now saying that China will most likely invade Taiwan this year, most likely within the next few months.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/04/china-will-launch-an-invasion-of-taiwan-in-next-few-months-intel-sources/

Comments

holminjone.bsky.social•6 days ago

It's never been a part of mainland china, why are they doing this?
I really hope it doesn't get ignored in the world because of all the other shit that's going on.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

Oh it won’t be ignored and will likely be when everyone just admits we are in WW3.

As for why…well because strategically Taiwan is key to the First Isalnd Chain which can contain Mainland China, and Taiwan is the pre-communist Republic of China government in exile.

isgd2bhi.bsky.social•6 days ago

Honestly, china's best window of opportunity is now, toss some cash at trump so he doesn't help out, and Taiwan will be genocided

silentsounds.bsky.social•6 days ago

As someone who's spent her adult life studying history & and law, I could absolutely see that.

China's economy was struggling prior to Trump's tariffs. They've been pushing nationalism, an oft used distraction & something that gets people to rally around the flag is a war. This...

silentsounds.bsky.social•6 days ago

... is a common tactic for failing govs (e.g. Argentina 1982).

Trump is essentially forcing China's hand & encouraging it at the same time. Trump fails to condemn Putin & repeatedly states he will take Canada & Greenland.

While I still think it unlikely China will invade Taiwan, I think...

silentsounds.bsky.social•6 days ago

.... they've seen how powerless and reluctant to act (get drawn into a war) thhe world is, and consequently, I see China invading Taiwan as far more likely today than I did this time last week. (The tariffs have not helped).

edgarz.bsky.social•6 days ago

If the US and Israel decide to take on Iran, China will move.

chronosschiron.bsky.social•6 days ago

and if your getitng your intellgence FROM ANY AMERICAN SOURCE NOW
YOU CAN FUCK THE HELL OFF
LOOK WHOSE RUNNING THAT INTEL
and stop being so STUPID

chronosschiron.bsky.social•6 days ago

you all clueless munchkins of the chinese propaganda network
no really you are
china wont have the the invasion force to do this till 2035 at earliest
and when it does you better stock up on pcs , laptops chips etc
cause the usa will be completely wrecked well before this

chronosschiron.bsky.social•6 days ago

as in bankrupted beyond belief

howardpearlman.bsky.social•6 days ago

Will China risk the blowing up of the 3 Gorges Dams that will wreck havoc over CHINA !

howardpearlman.bsky.social•6 days ago

Will China risk the blowing up of the 3 Gorges Dams that will wreck havoc over CHINA !

falrising.bsky.social•6 days ago

This is to be expected now that Trump's back. Xi was holding off during Biden's term.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

Yeah the timeline has been brought forward by years due to Trump’s trade war insanity. It will basically crush China’s economy so in a way it forced Xi’s hand to act or look weak and risk a coup. Peace likely could’ve been maintained with expert statesmanship.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

Also, Trump regime’s incompetence and chaos presents an opportunity for Xi to have a better chance of succeeding. We are total a shitshow.

falrising.bsky.social•6 days ago

This is why^ much more so than the economy

falrising.bsky.social•6 days ago

It won't crush China's economy. It will crush America's.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

It will actually crush both. China’s market is crashing now as well (10% already just today) and they already have 25% unemployment of young adults…perfect setup for a war.

falrising.bsky.social•6 days ago

In the markets right now, yes, but in relation to trade war tariffs in the long term, not likely.

While Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite index took a hit, China's market doesn't often follow global trends.

China has been planning the invasion of Taiwan for decades regardless of economy.

falrising.bsky.social•6 days ago

It nearly seemed inevitable back in 2017 when I lived there. China was locked and loaded on Taiwan. Was terrified it would happen any day.

Stunned they've held off for this long tbh

fiddledidi.bsky.social•6 days ago

China will never have a better opportunity with an incompetent cretin US president who has alienated all allies, an incompetent drunkard for sec of defense, and a spineless jackass as sec of state. They couldn’t have asked for weaker opponents.

alexdacunha.bsky.social•6 days ago

for sure!

herrschmidt.bsky.social•6 days ago

They might get a better opportunity when Europe has less options and therefore does what Putin expected it would to with the invasion of Ukraine: Wait, look, and then do whatever helps their markets. With the current tariffs, there might even be people within Taiwan not minding a Hongkongization.

reaper-z.bsky.social•6 days ago

No, I believe that opportunity has long-passed. At best, they should've aimed their invasion to be literally the day before Trump's inauguration, before he pissed off Europe to a degree where Europe started to re-arm.

herrschmidt.bsky.social•5 days ago

This is less about European arms than their willingness to act. Acting against China on an economic level will make the economy suffer. Now that Trump already increased the pressure, the urge to find a solution is a lot bigger. In that climate...

herrschmidt.bsky.social•5 days ago

... puppet regime in Taiwan, which would keep it independent for a few years might be excuse enough.

Which is why Putin tried to capture Ukraine on a weekend. Any reaction on Sunday evening would've been with attention to markets opening on Monday. Putin did not manage to create facts. China will.

softfantw.bsky.social•6 days ago

Very strange that some people think that Taiwanese may want to move from the 1st democracy in Asia to an authoritarian regime without any freedom

herrschmidt.bsky.social•6 days ago

There always was a movement to "normalize" relations to China. And had China not managed the integration of Hong Kong that poorly, it would be a lot stronger now. In the end it comes down to which side offers more, and the West is decreasing their offer on a daily level.

straightarrow67.bsky.social•6 days ago

Because America has been kneecapped by a man of weak character.

haraldthebonker.bsky.social•6 days ago

Let me guess
They’ll call it a special law enforcement operation

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

most likely yes, something like that. My guess is they will initiate a partial blockade under the pretext of maritime security and preventing smuggling and things will escalate from there.

glen2.bsky.social•5 days ago

Hump will let him....

bluelion17.bsky.social•6 days ago

Trump might as well give them the keys to the raider. Probably be just as effective in stopping them as what he’s doing now.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

Trump is a big reason that this is happening now. He took the trade war to an extreme level.

bluelion17.bsky.social•6 days ago

Completely agree. He needs to be put in jail where he belongs. Manufactures a completely pointless trade war and destroys international relations in the process. Brilliant. He needs to go.

vanja-s.bsky.social•6 days ago

Which intelligence?

railygirl1.bsky.social•6 days ago

Good question.

didi175.bsky.social•6 days ago

He opened the door to this new Era of plundering. He did this.

profesorpizquero.bsky.social•4 days ago

Yes. They are waiting for the US to enter war with Iran and proxies to take it. US would have all ammo compromised.

erictaysom.bsky.social•6 days ago

Anyone who posts this nonsense is not credible.

"While this chaos is being created in Asia, Beijing’s 20,000 or more men of military age smuggled into the US under the protocols of President Joe Biden’s open border begin attacks in conjunction with Mexican cartels."

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

Why is that not credible? It seems quite obvious that the cartels would be allied with China in this scenario. The article also said that the Trump administration would be unable or unwilling to do anything to prevent the invasion which is the reason for the expedited invasion timeline.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

Although, I do think this option is the least likely. More likely we will get massive cyber attacks and sabotage from sleeper cells already here.

erictaysom.bsky.social•6 days ago

Beijing did not smuggle 20,000 agents across the border. That is why it is not credible.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

seems to be making that estimate based on this 24,000+ Chinese nationals were apprehended at the US-Mexico border in 2024, of these articles can be believed: https://homeland.house.gov/2024/05/11/media-advisory-homeland-subcommittee-hearing-on-unprecedented-surge-of-chinese-illegal-immigration/

erictaysom.bsky.social•6 days ago

Yes, and assuming that they are largely chinese agents is asinine. You, or the author of this article, have no evidence that they are agents of the chinese state.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

That was a worst case scenario. We don’t know how many actually got through and not all of them have to be agents, just enough to cause a lot of damage through sabotage.

kobrick.bsky.social•6 days ago

The Taiwanese, Japanese and American have eyes on military maneuvers in China 24-7. They will know when China is preparing for war. Even the sneakiest maneuvering under the guise of military drills will be given 110% focus. That means we will know if China is really planning an invasion.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

It probably won’t start as an invasion, but a partial blockade for maritime security or anti smuggling.

kobrick.bsky.social•6 days ago

Blockade really means war. It will be a Putin-like mistake if Xi launches a half hearted, full or partial blockade. History tells us the element of surprise is the attackers’ biggest advantage in war.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

Xi tends to be very cautious though. He is very much afraid that attacking Taiwan could be his downfall. There are more hawkish high ranking CCP officials who are trying to push it, possibly to exploit the situation.

howardpearlman.bsky.social•6 days ago

Will China risk the blowing up of the 3 Gorges Dams that will wreck havoc over CHINA !

kobrick.bsky.social•6 days ago

All I know is that the CCP understands the consequences of a failed invasion or prolonged war against Taiwan. They haven’t attacked since Kinmen or launched any war since 1970s. But, the threat of an invasion is real.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

Best case for Xi is if Taiwan surrenders without hardly a fight. Wasn’t Putin basically counting on that in Ukraine when he sent in the tanks? I seem to be remembering that he thought that any resistance would be weak and most Ukrainians would basically welcome Russians. Or was that fake news?

galaxydreams70.bsky.social•6 days ago

Will the United States stand with Taiwan, or acquiesce to Xi and the PLA?

Is Trump up for the fight?

alexdacunha.bsky.social•6 days ago

He will threat China with more tariffs 🤡

darknato.bsky.social•6 days ago

And Trump won’t fight back, because the idea that he was pivoting to Asia was always horseshit. Fighting the Chinese would get in the way of selling off Pax Americana one scrap at a time.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

This actually helps Trump more than anything. Makes him look less the bad guy all of a sudden, even if he does nothing and he will be able to declare martial law and get more support for annexing Greenland, Canada for “national security.” :(

missdefecation.bsky.social•6 days ago

US President’s can’t declare martial law

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

It seems that they can, but it would be hard to enforce

missdefecation.bsky.social•6 days ago

How does it seem that they can? It’s not constitutionally granted to them, if Trump tries to its just him breaking the law not exercising a power of the president

canadianry.bsky.social•6 days ago

Who'd have thought allying with Muscovy would be in the cards just to try and screw Xina from gaining arctic/pacific port access. Only to cede Taiwan temporarily to then attack Beijing/Taipei after? Dumbest corporate reorganization, ever.

b21raider.bsky.social•6 days ago

Putin doesn’t seem to be playing well as an ally with the US though, he played Trump like a fiddle. Seems he will still lean more to helping Xi with oil, raw materials, and wheat. Russia could be China’s lifeline in a major war.

itsmepaul.bsky.social•6 days ago

Just before typhoon season? I doubt it... Imagine having your supply chain to the front cut by a typhoon. That would be devastating...

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply