The next election is a whole US presidency away, probably. Far too soon for this kind of claim about what the polls do and do not show, beyond 'the official opposition are not yet convincing people as an alternative to the government, so disgruntled voters are looking elsewhere'. - ThreadSky

stephenkb.bsky.social • 32 days ago

The next election is a whole US presidency away, probably. Far too soon for this kind of claim about what the polls do and do not show, beyond 'the official opposition are not yet convincing people as an alternative to the government, so disgruntled voters are looking elsewhere'.

Reposted from Mark Chadbourn

The Conservatives are now dead. It’s over for them. The focus needs to be on a new danger.

Latest from Opinium, 22-24 Jan
Lab 28% -1
Reform 27% +3
Con 21% -2
Lib Dem 11% +1
Green 8% -1
(Change since 8-10 Jan)

Comments

benbrad4d.bsky.social•31 days ago

The Tory’s could change leader…without telling anybody….well I’m shocked I tell you shocked 😳

someoneontwitter.bsky.social•31 days ago

I think the only conclusion you can draw from this is that 27 per cent of the people asked don't pay enough attention to the news to realise that the party they are considering voting for failed to vet a single candidate for the last election.

ianlineham.bsky.social•31 days ago

Remember the poll ratings the SDP got?
Don't remember them being a government when it was actual votes, though

da.videvans.uk•32 days ago

Labour, Tory and LDs all have a substantial infrastructure that reaches to the local level (albeit not as much as they used to), and their rough positions are well understood. Do Reform have that? Are they set up to get there? Does it matter anyway?

stephenkb.bsky.social•32 days ago

As Nute says. Badenoch is IMO shaping up to be the worst choice the Tories could have made whatever your politics, in part because of the "even when you agree with her, she is too lazy to execute" issue. But there are loads of external events that could help them and also they could change leader.

theramblingelf.bsky.social•32 days ago

As awful as Kemi is, I think the party was going to insist on someone like her at some point. In some ways, better to do it now.

If they'd picked a sensible candidate, they'd probably still struggle against the bland semi-competence of Labour and charisma of Farage, get impatient, and sack them.

stephenkb.bsky.social•32 days ago

Good way of putting it. We might well look back and go 'in hindsight, the first signs of the Tory party's doom were that it couldn't open up a reliable lead even in the winter of 2025' But also we might go 'remember before the Greenland Crisis when we all thought Kemi a dead duck?

rossmc11.bsky.social•32 days ago

Assuming a full term parliament it'll be a rare one with two US elections in it. Also by 2029 Xi will be 75, Putin 77 (older than Chernenko). Blair had a comfortable first term and three months till it suddenly wasn't.

lostindisco.bsky.social•32 days ago

However you parse it, the thought of Kemi being of any use in a geopolitical crisis is risible.

brennick.bsky.social•31 days ago

She’ll undoubtedly come down on the wrong side following the bombing of Denmark.

phillipcollins.bsky.social•32 days ago

Intrigued what position she'd take in that hypothetical crisis that might turn things around for her. Cheering on a US invasion?

jamesmoar.bsky.social•32 days ago

Applying her grasp of detail to a ringing denunciation of the invasion of Iceland.

tpgroberts.bsky.social•32 days ago

I do now need to know her thoughts on Greenland because I am certain they will be fascinatingly incoherent

philjdore.bsky.social•32 days ago

I believe she thinks it's woke.

alannfylde.bsky.social•32 days ago

And awful at integration

stephenkb.bsky.social•32 days ago

Yeah, I am intrigued by 'the first major news story that doesn't even *poorly* fit onto her reckons'.

stephenkb.bsky.social•32 days ago

I'll be honest, when the Southport murders happened, I thought 'terrorism', then when they released details I thought 'psychotic break' (at 17 it's the right age) and even though her talking about integration in the summer was a bit of a 'come again?' it wasn't obviously mad and stupid.

fornbirkibeinn.bsky.social•32 days ago

Are Greenlanders a peasant culture? Would pay good money to learn her answer.

16leiba.bsky.social•31 days ago

Fourth Cod War?

nlitchfield.bsky.social•31 days ago

I'm not sure *any* leader has coherent thoughts on Greenland, but tbh I'm more interested in how she will handle the Ukraine issue in the next year or so if Trump does effectively end support.

nlitchfield.bsky.social•31 days ago

Starmer also tbf.

celestialweasel.bsky.social•32 days ago

Bizarre China Crisis cover band

deargodwhatnow.bsky.social•32 days ago

If it reveals anything its about the 0utlook and abilities of the party leaders in charge right now, which can help in predicting how they respond to future events?

callymeg.bsky.social•32 days ago

Memories of Rumsfeld:

mischawatson.bsky.social•32 days ago

This the big thing the polls could do isn't it, make the Tories think they have to change leader.

stephenkb.bsky.social•32 days ago

Yep.

dylandifford.bsky.social•32 days ago

I suspect a real-world manifestation would be the more pressing wake-up call. I mean, if this carries through to May, that's an absolute plastering on the few councils with elections.

theramblingelf.bsky.social•32 days ago

At this early stage Kemi is blaming the polling on the mistakes of prior leaders. When the party begins to question her leadership part of the discussion will be how she explains the polling numbers.

Suspect she'll do the classic all struggling politicians go for - blame the mainstream media.

fornbirkibeinn.bsky.social•31 days ago

Though that didn't work in government, as they just set ridiculous metrics, failed them and lied with near zero pushback. Could quite easily still work in opposition.

willwiles.bsky.social•32 days ago

Putting aside her manifest personal failings, she does have the considerable advantage of youth and if the Tory party was really interested in being anti-"declinism" they might consider pitching strongly to young people. This would mean finding out what young people want ofc, and then doing it 👎🏻

mkuzmicki.bsky.social•32 days ago

Any definitive pronouncement (outside laws of physics) treat with caution. Few years ago Starmer seemed doomed following by-election loss & before that Boris had, apparently, locked Tories in power for 10 years…Events dear boy and all that. But, rise of Reform shows danger of Labour failing.

jtatlife.bsky.social•32 days ago

She'll need something that is very bad for Starmer but not good for Farage.
Ironically, a Trump outrage which Starmer is forced to back for reasons of state (and Farage for reasons of cash) would be a logical candidate, but she's so US online that it wouldn't help at all.

alastairmeeks.bsky.social•32 days ago

One question I'm wrestling with is how much time the Conservatives are going to give her. My view is that they should already be looking to manage a succession but I'm not a Conservative and I'm unclear whether they yet realise how trashed their brand is, not giving them the luxury of time.

samfr.bsky.social•32 days ago

I think they're also exhausted and really struggling to adapt to opposition. Also remaining moderates don't want to risk Jenrick and the right wingers don't want Cleverley.

alastairmeeks.bsky.social•32 days ago

But if they don't act soon, there will be nothing to fight over. She's transparently not up to it and they can't coast given their challenges.

samfr.bsky.social•32 days ago

I agree but I also don't want Jenrick to be leader and I think he would win at the moment.

lufcmot.bsky.social•32 days ago

He's just biding his time before he resigns from the shadow cabinet in order to undermine and eventually depose her. He's still running his leadership bid.

mischawatson.bsky.social•32 days ago

If they start polling under 20 consistently they have to move don't they? What would they have to lose.

dhbillingham.bsky.social•32 days ago

The Tory Party has often selected dud leaders simply to prevent others from becoming leader.

It’s frankly ridiculous that neither Rab Butler or Ken Clarke ever became leader when the likes of IDS and Truss did.

edbenegg.bsky.social•32 days ago

But back then they didn't have a rival right wing party. After 97 they had the luxury of time for the public to lose inspiration in the incumbent government, a global financial crash and getting a leader (Cameron) who seemed unconnected to the past and electable.

dhbillingham.bsky.social•32 days ago

The Tory talent pool has been diminishing for some time and when you look at their younger MPs it hasn’t improved.

rickywlmsbong.bsky.social•32 days ago

yeah it's possible that this really is an inflection point but far too early. the election's going to be decided in part on things we don't even foresee yet

rickywlmsbong.bsky.social•32 days ago

perfectly boring but reasonable outcome is things get a bit better for one reason or another over 4 years (e.g., inflation continues trending down and boe cuts rates), tories switch leaders and recover a bit, and starmer wins with a reduced majority

rickywlmsbong.bsky.social•32 days ago

personally i just wouldn't bet on the first- or second-oldest party in the democratic world being dead over a couple months of kind of lousy polling

catus14.bsky.social•32 days ago

Yep, she appears to be as lazy as Johnson and as (or was) as self-obsessed as Truss. Tories will survive, she won't

alannfylde.bsky.social•32 days ago

They've also gone the wrong way, she can't out-Farage Farage, even if she was a humble, workaholic. Being mindknumbingly useless isn't helping her.

catus14.bsky.social•32 days ago

You are too polite about her. Bafflingly unqualified

alannfylde.bsky.social•32 days ago

I'm a nice bloke, or so my dogs think. I'm looking forward to the 'Let Kemi be Kemi' reset. It's different for Tory leaders, the press won't turn against her, imagine if she made a mess of eating a bacon sandwich, God help her then.

catus14.bsky.social•32 days ago

I struggle to see why they picked her. Hopeless Minister, not very bright, intellectually lazy. Assume they thought having a black woman would wrongfoot Labour, plus not as crooked as Jenrick, plus Cleverly outsmarted himself. Still baffling

casmilus.bsky.social•32 days ago

Jenrick avoided this danger by never saying anything a reasonable person would agree with.

The underlying problem is: they ended up with those 2 as the final candidates. Which is probably due to MPs playing games with switching votes, and not getting what they wanted.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•32 days ago

Yes, they certainly aren't done. But it's fair to say that this is about as callenging a situation they've been in since the 1800s and it is, at least, possible they are

helenbelcherobe.bsky.social•32 days ago

There are also political reasons for wanting to make such a declaration. If that narrative can become set, it can become self-reinforcing to an extent. (See also Lib Dems post-2015.)

cjlemire.com•32 days ago

My take is that this far out voters treat polling like a consequence-free protest vote, in roughly the same category as pre-2016 MEP elections.

"It's over for the Tories" assumes facts not in evidence.

simonpease.bsky.social•31 days ago

There is always an element of bloody mindedness to polls at this stage. It’s no risk for people to say they will vote X or Y instead of their normal vote. Farage is riding on an insubstantial cloud, at present.

feelingantsy.bsky.social•32 days ago

Exactly…. It wasn’t that long ago that polling had conservatives in power for ever

simonziegler.bsky.social•32 days ago

Completely agree.

dansouth.bsky.social•31 days ago

The UK election comes after the US election. The political exhaustion (if we are all still alive) following 4 years of a deranged Trump almost certainly means there will be little appetite for anarchic political populism.

suescishaw.bsky.social•32 days ago

Are simplistic polls like this of any worth, now that tactical voting has become normalised during elections?
Also really can't see constituencies that went from Tory to LibDem, switching back if Tories go further & further to the right...

danjac.bsky.social•32 days ago

Didn't the Sdp-Liberal Alliance poll at 50% in 1981? I don't remember Roy Jenkins' premiership either.

stephenkb.bsky.social•32 days ago

Well, indeed.

mrsivb.bsky.social•32 days ago

it did help to seal Thatcher's second term by splitting the vote though. That, and Michael Foot and the Falklands. Who only knows what might happen between now and 2029?

prevailvoting.bsky.social•31 days ago

Have a look at the PREVAIL voting system. Specially designed to bring PR to Westminster, PREVAIL gives elected parties a quota of seats to reflect the popular vote and then seeks to transfer seats to under quota parties.

billheywood.bsky.social•31 days ago

Labour inherited a country driven into the ditch by the Tories, it's going to take time for them to start mending the damage

Things will look a lot different (and better) by the time of the next election

michaelnoller.bsky.social•31 days ago

If I was a betting man (which I'm not) at the moment I would still see the next election producing a small majority labour government or a labour/lib dem coalition. That residual anger towards the conservatives is not going to be forgotten in one term.

nickequipechasee.bsky.social•31 days ago

Largely because of their own continuing failings.

alannfylde.bsky.social•32 days ago

The Yellow Submarine answer will turn things around for Kemi.

stevethegreek.bsky.social•32 days ago

Not to mention the ageing unhealthy demographic of much of Farage's core supporters 😱🤣

nutedawn.bsky.social•32 days ago

As deep as my scepticism is of this Tory leadership, nobody in the history of British politics has ever won money betting that THIS is the seemingly existential crisis which the Conservative Party can’t adapt its way out of

mr3402.bsky.social•32 days ago

There feels like a uniquely important aspect of time in this crisis. It took them 3 leaders and 6-7 years to even begin to sort after 97. The question is, do they have that time in the current moment? With time, they'd 100% survive and thrive.

nbutton93.bsky.social•32 days ago

More just how long it takes.

gregwa.bsky.social•32 days ago

Yes, all true but with the caveat that they have never been unattractive to centrists while also having a viable alternative on their right to face.

azery.bsky.social•32 days ago

usually it takes a couple parliaments for them to be back on their feet but this feels existential in a way previous crisis haven't

casmilus.bsky.social•32 days ago

It's because of the narrowing of the gap between them and the LibDems, which we aren't talking about, instead Reform gets all the bandwidth.

webweasel.bsky.social•31 days ago

But it’s also the pincer movement they’re caught in between the LibDems and Reform. They can’t outflank Reform and if they try, they move further away from LibDem switchers.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•32 days ago

True. But hard to think of when, post Corn Laws, is has seemed more challenging

richarddwyer.bsky.social•32 days ago

1997 is a walk in the park in comparison.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•32 days ago

Indeed - no real challenger to the right, lots of talent in the party, a record they can at least argue...

tpgroberts.bsky.social•32 days ago

I think the middle here is the key factor, to be honest? In both their struggle in opposition and the why they don't have a record to argue on. Whilst I'm not going to issue a paean for the good tories, the party lost a lot of institutional memory in 2019 that has not been rebuilt.

stephenkb.bsky.social•32 days ago

It was striking on Laura K this morning how LK went for the 'uh, could you just expound on this claim you keep making about it being a problem of integration?' and Badenoch a) could not answer b) started blinking really nervously c) criticised people asking 'where's the evidence' *in general*.

simonwells.bsky.social•32 days ago

That's a kind way of saying the rump of the party drank the Brexit Kool Aid and have been wandering Westminster with wild staring eyes and a whiff of patchouli oil ever since..

tpgroberts.bsky.social•32 days ago

Whilst the Tories record 2010-2019 is not good, I just don't think you get to the utter collapse of even trying to govern without exiling a good chunk of your experienced ministers.

northernash.bsky.social•32 days ago

The problem with "in the history of politics" is that is always true until it's not

nutedawn.bsky.social•32 days ago

I absolutely believe this could be the end for them, but the threshold should be very high for claiming it and certainly not declared with confidence four years before an election

mattashby.com•31 days ago

It’s certainly possible that a political machine that’s been reinventing itself to capture the bulk of votes on the British right for 190 years won’t be able to do that in 2028, but to suggest three years in advance that they *certainly* won’t be able to isn’t plausible.

brianhprobert.bsky.social•31 days ago

Hamas has 4 MPs and they are not even in the poll

indy.bsky.social•32 days ago

I am going to firmly believe that this shows the Great British Public thinks LOTO should read the reports.

worgztheowl.bsky.social•32 days ago

Downwind of it - obviously the wider public don't care per se - but isn't this precisely why is doing badly? In that has just done half-baked Reform attack lines, which if you agree with, you agree with the full fat version (hence Reform's rise) or you find unserious so are looking elsewhere.

alunephraim.bsky.social•32 days ago

To the very minor extent that we're not just dealing with 'what are we even measuring' (the ancient problem with off-season polling in GB) the one thing that polling over the Winter has shown is that OO is not really doing so well.

sharonhawth.bsky.social•32 days ago

I think given recent polls showing a majority of Brits prefer Europe to Trump, I suggest if LibDems keep pursuing pro EU agenda I think they might be real threat to Labour.

alunephraim.bsky.social•32 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/alunephraim.bsky.social/post/3lgnktq6hvs2j

stephenkb.bsky.social•32 days ago

Yeah, I think that's right also, and true also that there are a lot of pollsters who would have juiced their numbers in a way Opinium won't.

alunephraim.bsky.social•32 days ago

I always laugh when people insist that polling should be banned during a GE campaign. No! That's the one time there's a massive incentive for either better practice or practice liable to lead to a more accurate result. It's the rest of the time we should be careful.

fornbirkibeinn.bsky.social•31 days ago

Also, last time the polling was actually necessary for most of the electorate to get the outcomes they wanted locally.

alunephraim.bsky.social•32 days ago

(and this particular firm o/c is known as more straight-bat, so you will get outliers that they will publish rather than... uh... well there are ways)

iainbhx.bsky.social•32 days ago

Ah the final survation which was suppressed. Of course, Opinium had a poor result at the last election but have a decent track record before that.

bawsman.bsky.social•32 days ago

The more exposure the Reform candidates come under, the more they will be seen as the chancers they are.
There is no doubt around 25% of the English voting population have right wing/fascist views but I can’t see it rising above this unless social media convert the youth.

alanpx.bsky.social•32 days ago

While they remain the Gammon Party they aren’t going to go much further. FPTP becomes a wildly complicating factor in a 5-Party system with none above 30% though. An accidental Badenoch/Farage government disaster is more possible without PR.

davidbeech.bsky.social•32 days ago

I still think the idea Farage will be PM in 4 years' time is very overblown- not least because the thought of it would encourage even more tactical voting to stop it - and that still, on balance, Labour has a good chance of 2nd term in some form or another. Maybe I'm naive 🤷‍♂️

simonwells.bsky.social•32 days ago

Reform is a one man show and the idea that the one man in question, who we know doesn't play well with others, can hold an entire party of eccentric and extreme views together for another four years without serious mishap is very much open to question.

mulrain.bsky.social•32 days ago

I think that’s a perfectly sensible conclusion.

tokustarvulkan.bsky.social•32 days ago

If labours planning bill works as intended we could get a Britain that builds- then they can tell renters and young folks that this bill is why housing is no longer painfully out of reach

That’s Game.

gregwa.bsky.social•32 days ago

I remember the SDP polling at 51% so claims about polls should rightly be viewed with a degree of skepticism. My only caveat is the Tories have never been fighting a serious alternative on their right before and they show little sign as yet of knowing how to deal with it.

davidjwbailey.bsky.social•32 days ago

Plenty of time to crimp the fire hose of disinformation that is puffing up the reform fake support balloon

richvivv.bsky.social•31 days ago

They will, however, need a new leader. (And new policies, new more moderate faces, new arguments, a new identity....)

casmilus.bsky.social•32 days ago

There hasn't been enough research on the hypothesis that "people who answer polls just like trolling the pollsters".

indiecornwall.bsky.social•32 days ago

I do think there are legitimate reasons to think the Tories may be a fading force though.

stephenkb.bsky.social•32 days ago

As I say in the follow-up posts.

indiecornwall.bsky.social•32 days ago

IMHO the main issue for the Tories is just it's not clear what they're replacing the oldest cohort of their voters with. They seem, in general, quite relient on demographic conditions which don't seem to be replicating for working age voters.

andrewzcooper.bsky.social•32 days ago

On a related point, things weren't going too well for Margaret Thatcher in the year after she was elected. https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/voting-intentions-great-britain-1976-1987

localnotail.bsky.social•32 days ago

Probably also important to remember that Reform UK Party Ltd
a) are failing to win local elections
b) really struggled to get good candidates for MPs
c) are almost certain to schism due to infighting - see Lee Anderson vs Richard Tice from before he joined; Rupert Lowe courting Tommyrotter far-right

yrhengoes.bsky.social•32 days ago

An early test of support for Reform comes in 2026 with elections to the Scottish Parliament and to Senedd Cymru (Wales). Both have Proportional Representation. In Cymru it looks likely Labour will lose power and that Reform could be the biggest party. However PR will stop them taking power alone.

jayzedbee.bsky.social•32 days ago

There were polls showing reform in first place before and the tories got better. If i was labour id be cautious but carrying on at these signs tbh. They wont though they will continue pissing their pants about farage and doing immigration bullshit

theglassisempty.bsky.social•32 days ago

But won’t the crackdown on benefit “fraudsters” have them flocking back? After all it does pander to their worst prejudices.

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