I have a very simple model: when bad things happen, voters vote the incumbent out (unless it’s external, eg attack/war). Prices went up and crime went up. Dems were cooked the minute they ran the incumbent. - ThreadSky

aleximas.bsky.social • 215 days ago

I have a very simple model: when bad things happen, voters vote the incumbent out (unless it’s external, eg attack/war).

Prices went up and crime went up. Dems were cooked the minute they ran the incumbent.

Comments

jvoris.bsky.social•215 days ago

Doesn't vote the bums out usually extend to the party, even if you don't run the incumbent?

jacobedenhofer.bsky.social•215 days ago

That’s just good old retrospective accountability, or do you mean sth different? If the former, what’s the most convincing response to Bartels/Achen in your view? Empirically wrong (no shark attack result) or theoretically not compelling, eg @ashworth et al argue
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/democracy-accountability-and-representation/electoral-accountability-and-the-control-of-politicians-selecting-good-types-versus-sanctioning-poor-performance/BA4FE99774A89B68A3E307F887A7BB49

jacobedenhofer.bsky.social•215 days ago

that it is sometimes rational for voters to respond to events that are beyond the incumbent’s control.
I’m genuinely curious.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12334

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social•215 days ago

The bigger response to @aleximas.bsky.social is voters used to retrospectively reward/punish on unemployment, growth, real wages…now it’s just prices and interest rates. Doesn’t seem very nobly savage or straightforward to me!

aleximas.bsky.social•215 days ago

It’s just a matter of how broadly the bad thing affects people. Inflation and crime penetrate broadly, unemployment and “growth” are not. It’s a very simple model—how many people are affected by the good/bad thing? That’s why inflation 👆, you’re cooked.

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social•215 days ago

I dunno, it def seems like preferences changed because of Covid shock. Prices always mattered but they matter much more relative to wages now. I just don’t think it was so straightforward ex ante

aleximas.bsky.social•215 days ago

I think size of the shock matters. Basic commodities going up 40-50% within 2-3 years is pretty nuts. Last time anything like that happened was Carter, and he got cooked.

mcopelov.bsky.social•215 days ago

No, it seems like ad hoc Calvinball. Maybe we’re in the process of developing a price level theory of electoral politics. But everyone’s inventing new metrics & shifting goalposts bc the things they always said predicted 🇺🇸 elections don’t seem to work now. It’s not a great look for the discipline.

jacobedenhofer.bsky.social•215 days ago

Question is whether the FTPT (aside: deficits are predicted to increase inflationary pressue in other macro frameworks too) take is (sufficiently) different from partisanship. Which 2024 Trump voters would we expect to stick to their FTPT mental model and thus punish him if greater deficits -> infl?

mcopelov.bsky.social•215 days ago

Well, no one & neither party actually cares about deficits (https://www.intereconomics.eu/contents/year/2024/number/5/article/how-the-us-dollar-s-dominance-negates-fears-about-debt-and-deficits.html)

As for whether voters really care about inflation, you already what I think (https://bsky.app/profile/mcopelov.bsky.social/post/3lawnrjeur22d)

So I'd expect exactly zero penalty for Trump for either deficits or inflation from those voters

jacobedenhofer.bsky.social•215 days ago

Could be (Do we have good evidence on this?), though I think there is a case to be made that these two indicators can be a pretty good heuristics (almost sufficient stats) for how the economy affects people’s material circumstances. In fact, I’d guess that the rather exceptional period when both

jacobedenhofer.bsky.social•215 days ago

inflation was low and monetary policy was stuck at the zero lower bound (in the wake of the financial crisis) might have distorted our beliefs about the importance of inflation and interest rates to voters as heuristics.

isaiahbishop.bsky.social•215 days ago

Yeah this is part of it, mainly because the macroecon context going into 2008 was "dear god dont spend any money", which completely failed. But then i think we forgot the lessons learned in previous crises, politics wise

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