+1. Also, to cover another thing, I don't see 3 NDPers crossing the floor. Even for cabinet seats. The SK Liberal Party went extinct chasing cabinet seats in similar circumstances to this, and I doubt anybody committed enough to run for the NDP wants to be remembered for that. - ThreadSky

perreaux.bsky.social • 3 days ago

+1.

Also, to cover another thing, I don't see 3 NDPers crossing the floor.

Even for cabinet seats. The SK Liberal Party went extinct chasing cabinet seats in similar circumstances to this, and I doubt anybody committed enough to run for the NDP wants to be remembered for that.

Reposted from Emmett Macfarlane 🇨🇦

Just saw like a 5th or 6th smart person say they're expecting a short Parliament.

With the NDP leaderless and financially broken, and the Liberals + NDP = enough seats for confidence, I'm expecting a longish minority Parliament, not a short one. By long I mean Carney will get AT LEAST two years.

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coolpapabell.bsky.social•3 days ago

The only feasible quick election scenario I can imagine is one where the combination of CPC in-fighting and parliamentary obstruction gives Carney a boost in the polls and a mandate to go seek a majority – a much more unlikely scenario than two years of LPC/NDP (and occasional BQ?) cooperation.

perreaux.bsky.social•3 days ago

It's likely to end up being Carney's call, either way.

coolpapabell.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yup. Also worth keeping in mind that a *lot* of the pain and suffering that is inevitable given Trump's tariffs, etc., remains to come – and will likely drag down conservative parties everywhere. IOW, the worst lies ahead of us and is on its way quickly.

perreaux.bsky.social•3 days ago

Sounds about right. The political battle of the next two years will be trying to make the recession stick to the other guy (when blame normally goes to the incumbent.)

csbvan.bsky.social•3 days ago

The NDP are in deep rebuild mode. Why would an election happen any time soon? And for the NDP, to what end? They could lose their hard fought wins from the last minority. Its a 169 seat minority!

They don't even need to support any confidence motion. They could just abstain, and the Libs survive.

shaunmckinnon.bsky.social•3 days ago

Most people who go into politics, especially for a party like the NDP, are there because they are true believers. Of course floor crossings happen, but man oh man do people really underestimate partisan affiliation.

perreaux.bsky.social•3 days ago

The Saskatchewan Liberal Party of 1997-99 being the exception that proves your rule.

cstegen.bsky.social•3 days ago

I’m not sure folks who run for any liberal party in Canada have the same type of convictions as those running for the NDP, the Greens or even the old Reform Party though.

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