Many of us have seen this figure, which shows the dramatic increase in sea-surface temperatures, breaking historical records. Looks scary. However... Short🧵 1/5 - ThreadSky

robbieandrew.bsky.social • 116 days ago

Many of us have seen this figure, which shows the dramatic increase in sea-surface temperatures, breaking historical records. Looks scary. However...
Short🧵 1/5

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gtb3.bsky.social•116 days ago

The real question I have is, when will the thermohaline circulation be disrupted and the next ice age begins? Then, I'd like to know how far down the glacial impact will affect the southern US?

robbieandrew.bsky.social•116 days ago

We know that we've just been through an El Niño period, and that we've come out of an unusually prolonged La Niña period. 2/5

robbieandrew.bsky.social•116 days ago

If we look at the previous El Niño event, we would have also thought it looked scary at the time. The preceding La Niña also held growth in temperatures down, so that when the El Niño arrived, records were broken. 3/5

robbieandrew.bsky.social•116 days ago

And here's the El Niño event before that, same story. Sea-surface temperature records broken by a large margin. 4/5

robbieandrew.bsky.social•116 days ago

All of that said, the margins by which records were broken during the last two years are larger, and there's lots of discussions as to why. My point here is only to show that this figure in isolation makes it look much more dramatic than it needs to be. It's dramatic enough! 5/5

robbieandrew.bsky.social•116 days ago

All these figures are posted on my website: https://robbieandrew.github.io/ppm/

robbieandrew.bsky.social•116 days ago

I should also say that my figures downplay the increased margin in 2023, because the scales across my three figures are not consistent. If you're eyeballing these (rather than looking at the numbers), it looks like the margin of record-breaking in 2023 wasn't so much bigger than previous ones.

thomas-boettcher.bsky.social•115 days ago

"The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has been steadily climbing since mankind began its long-term climate experiment of liberating long-buried fossil carbon."
// this is a good sentence
https://robbieandrew.github.io/ppm/

thomas-boettcher.bsky.social•115 days ago

My reading is: 300% ocean SST increase.
0.3375°C ((0.5 - 0.23)/8*10) //2023-2015
0.1166°C ((0.23-0.02)/18*10) //2015-1997
0.27°C warmer SST in 8 years 2023 to 2015.
0.5°C 2023
0.23°C 2015
0.02°C 1997
https://robbieandrew.github.io/ppm/
#7T7.8 this is accelerated ocean heating.
https://bsky.app/profile/thomas-boettcher.bsky.social/post/3lbrds3z64c25

thomas-boettcher.bsky.social•115 days ago

read 0.23°C temperature Aug 2015 pink arrow
#7T7.7 this is Hansen ocean value 0.1166°C warming in 10 a.
0.21°C warmer in 18 years 2015 compared to 1997
SST_60S_60N was 0.23°C 2015-Aug 2016-Aug
SST_60S_60N was 0.02°C 1997-Aug 1998-Aug
https://robbieandrew.github.io/ppm/

https://bsky.app/profile/thomas-boettcher.bsky.social/post/3lbrcwny4nc25

prof-mike.bsky.social•115 days ago

The "large margin" is, according to your figures, ~0.15 ° in 1997, wheres is was ~0.65 ° in 2023.

I am not a climate scientist, but what people "scared", as far understand, is the deviation from the expected, the probability, the standard deviation.

sturmlliouville.bsky.social•115 days ago

What scares me more that we had increase in average surface temperature whilst massive La Nina. Isn't that new?

robbieandrew.bsky.social•115 days ago

The two years affected by strong La Niña patterns were 2021 and 2022, both of which were below the trend line. 2020 was coming out of a mild El Niño.
It's all worrying. But there's debate on how much new there is to worry about.
https://berkeleyearth.org/october-2024-temperature-update/

sturmlliouville.bsky.social•115 days ago

OK, thanks. At least this looks still normal.

dunklewolke.bsky.social•116 days ago

Good 🧵, and that's what @torefurevik.bsky.social mentioned a while ago as well:👇🏽

warrens-complex.bsky.social•116 days ago

How far down in the ocean is the temperature anomaly, say, half of what it is at the surface?

robbieandrew.bsky.social•116 days ago

Good qn. This isn't my field, but the El Nino cycle is partly (entirely?) about shifting some warmer water between surface and lower depths and back again.
Through 2023, nothing unusual.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-ocean-heat

danielwilliams965.bsky.social•114 days ago

By not acknowledging the effect of shale/LNG on temperature, climate scientists are perpetuating (unequivocally, irrefutably) the
#fracking industry and the biosphere/economic breakdown this will cause..

#bigclimate

johncallahan.bsky.social•115 days ago

Yes, they look scary but not because of the change within a year. It's that the ocean heat content, SST, and sea level height all continue to increase year after year. (The huge jump in SST this year is also scary!)

piersforster.bsky.social•115 days ago

Robbie - nice one - we will turn you into a physical climate scientist yet!

robbieandrew.bsky.social•115 days ago

Wouldn't that require me to learn some physical climate science? 😉

piersforster.bsky.social•114 days ago

Hey, not being an energy system modeller never stopped me! 🥳

mildthing99.bsky.social•115 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/mildthing99.bsky.social/post/3lbq6r4u5cs25

mathieuvv.bsky.social•115 days ago

One of the big difference seems to be that temps were back to "previous-record-levels" around aug-sept (in '98 and '16), while this is not the case this time (2024), even in november.

robbieandrew.bsky.social•115 days ago

That's right. The deviation is larger and longer. Longer La Niña preceding the El Niño, reduced sulphur dioxide emissions in the north Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and other variability. The debate is around these other factors.

simongiz.bsky.social•114 days ago

Hello, not related to your post, but how can be explained going from a ratio of 2:1 for consumption-based emissions and production-based emissions in 2009 in BE [1] to a ratio of ~1:1 in 2024 in GCB 2024 report?
[1] https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/es803496a
[2] https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2024-519/

pcalvin.bsky.social•114 days ago

Seems like a 2-year X-axis would really show the jump here.

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