New: Preliminary petroleum sales data for the full year 2024 have just been published by Norway's statistics office. ▸Diesel down 9.9% ▸Petrol down 5.2% These result from (1) further growth in the EV fleet and (2) the huge drop in Sweden's fuel prices. Let's unpack this. 1/10 - ThreadSky

robbieandrew.bsky.social • 38 days ago

New: Preliminary petroleum sales data for the full year 2024 have just been published by Norway's statistics office.
▸Diesel down 9.9%
▸Petrol down 5.2%
These result from (1) further growth in the EV fleet and (2) the huge drop in Sweden's fuel prices.
Let's unpack this. 1/10

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robbieandrew.bsky.social•38 days ago

Firstly, Norway's EV sales as a share of total passenger car sales continued to climb in 2024, reaching about 88% for the year. This means that the share of the fleet that is fully electric is now over 27%, and it has reduced the number of diesel and petrol cars on the roads. 2/10

robbieandrew.bsky.social•38 days ago

Here it's important folks outside of Europe to note that there are more diesel cars on the roads of Norway than petrol (gasoline) cars. There are actually now more electric cars on the roads of Norway than petrol cars. 3/10

robbieandrew.bsky.social•38 days ago

But the growth in Norway's EVs, while strong, has been gradual, and the decline in particularly diesel sales in 2024 was certainly not gradual. Diesel sales in Norway were also affected by the sharp decline in the price of diesel in neighbouring Sweden at the start of 2024, down 20% overnight. 4/10

robbieandrew.bsky.social•38 days ago

On 1 Jan 2024, Sweden's government dramatically reduced the requirement on the share of biofuel blended in with road diesel. This drop in biofuels led immediately to a drop in prices there, and this led to cross-border traffic filling up much more on the Swedish side of the border. 5/10

robbieandrew.bsky.social•38 days ago

This shift in diesel sales has negligible effect on where the diesel is consumed. So Norway's territorial emissions from use of diesel won't drop because of this change in the price differential. But reporting is based instead on sales of fuels, so reported emissions in Norway will decline. 6/10

robbieandrew.bsky.social•38 days ago

This is a 'feature' of the accounting system used by countries to report road transport emissions to the UN, designed to prevent double-counting.
But in Sweden, true emissions will go up, regardless of accounting features, because more fossil diesel was used in 2024 and less biodiesl. 7/10

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•38 days ago

So how much of the 9.9% drop in diesel is due to increased diesel tank filling in Sweden, you recon?

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