transit increases the maximum allowable density before prices increase because it decreases travel times but w/o transit and with low zoned density (any metro in the sunbelt except LA), you’re going hit a threshold where prices start to tick up because there’s competition for low commute times - ThreadSky

tiredgenerally.bsky.social • 44 days ago

transit increases the maximum allowable density before prices increase because it decreases travel times but w/o transit and with low zoned density (any metro in the sunbelt except LA), you’re going hit a threshold where prices start to tick up because there’s competition for low commute times

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azincle.bsky.social•44 days ago

A lot of cities are probably at these limits already but keep sprawling because they also add more suburban office/industrial parks so people don't have to commute to the CBD. Like there's no way people buying homes here are commuting to downtown Dallas.

punt1.bsky.social•44 days ago

yeah, but that also happened in LA and they still hit the limit eventually.

tiredgenerally.bsky.social•44 days ago

“blue states” (really blue metros) are further along in this process. both having much more desirable urban cores and *much* more allowed density. red states are able to build out (sprawl) but will hit their density threshold (no transit) much sooner.

tiredgenerally.bsky.social•44 days ago

you’re already starting to see this in Atlanta, phoenix, Dallas. Miami is already there and with lower salaries than their blue city counterparts.

tiredgenerally.bsky.social•44 days ago

like the red state policy (no transit, low density zoning - or zoning equivalent, see Houston) is worse. these cities just started growing much later.

tiredgenerally.bsky.social•44 days ago

if I could summarize my theoretical framework here, I would say that you cannot sustain density without transit and you can’t keep prices low in growing cities without density.

tiredgenerally.bsky.social•44 days ago

should add that there is both a vertical AND horizontal (sprawl) constraint to growth because of travel times. the latter is just attached to both physical geography and infrastructure. https://bsky.app/profile/tiredgenerally.bsky.social/post/3lfzypmibak2t

boomies-n-zoomies.bsky.social•44 days ago

I think your thesis is correct in the abstract, but you could easily add “increasing transit” in the same list the article provides and for similar reasons. Most heavily blue cities both have pretty mediocre transit networks for their size and wealth, and no path to fixing that.

problemfellow.bsky.social•44 days ago

There’s a lot of layers to this but tbis is a really good point- all the problems blue cities are having now are coming down the tube for red ones if not here already

samusishere.bsky.social•44 days ago

One thing I used to praise Texas and other red states for as an example for blue states to follow was that they were doing high property taxes.

This seemed like an efficient tax that would reduce the incentive for people to block new housing.

tiredgenerally.bsky.social•44 days ago

yeah that I’ll give you. but this gets pretty unsustainable once prices start rising rapidly unless you do a prop 13 type reassessment cap

samusishere.bsky.social•44 days ago

But now that housing prices in Texas have started to increase, the lawmakers have responded with panic, cutting property taxes as much as they can.

This showed I had the reasoning exactly wrong, low housing prices *caused* high property taxes.

cyneheard.bsky.social•44 days ago

They’re basically saying “the average home should be paying X in taxes”, and rates adjust accordingly to fit. Which is a reasonable approach, but opaque to the average person.

samusishere.bsky.social•44 days ago

And no American politician actually dares to have property taxes that really bite and encourage more density.

justmicah.bsky.social•44 days ago

The good (????) news is without transit and density these red state cities are gonna become sprawling multi hour commute nightmares at half LA's population.

jortscity.bsky.social•44 days ago

is this... calculable? it seems calculable.

segyges.bsky.social•44 days ago

austin zoning is starting to allow more high density, hence the price drops

blahblahblah333333.bsky.social•44 days ago

The level of density needed to offset this is prob a lot lower than Ideal Urbanism. Allowing townhomes in all SF zones would get us like 80% of the way there.

There's an agglomeration penalty from sprawl but it's overstated IMO. Weakly centered cities like LA can still have strong network effects.

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