As long as Trump has locked in at least 45% of the US population for anything he does he can divide and neutralise opposition for long enough to paralyse US state capacity and increase risks of civil conflict before mid-terms - ThreadSky

aphclarkson.bsky.social • 4 days ago

As long as Trump has locked in at least 45% of the US population for anything he does he can divide and neutralise opposition for long enough to paralyse US state capacity and increase risks of civil conflict before mid-terms

Reposted from Simon Rosenberg

We should expect a flood of right-aligned polls showing the country rallying behind Dear Leader.

Comments

aphclarkson.bsky.social•4 days ago

Btw my regular use of "civil conflict" rather than "civil war" in relation to the US is deliberate. Civil conflict is more the normalisation of the use of armed violence in disputes between political factions, but it does not have to lead to the more wide-ranging system collapse of civil war.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•4 days ago

"civil conflict" can operate in a spectrum from routine armed violence experienced in Italy in 70s to early 90s even as daily life trundled on in much of the country to much wider social disruption experienced in places like 70s-90s Northern Ireland.

Civil War involves much wider system collapse

stalker2005.bsky.social•4 days ago

Well said.

kentindell.bsky.social•4 days ago

So the difference is whether 300 dollars buys a tank of gas or a ham and cheese sandwich?

davidrafferty.bsky.social•4 days ago

This is where “stasis” would the be ideal term, except it has a quite different meaning in ordinary usage.

bonenberger.bsky.social•4 days ago

Civil war in the US isn’t really possible in the near term; depending how states and factions organize between now and 2028, that might change

paxlusitanica.bsky.social•4 days ago

Good distinction. A scenario akin to France in May 1968 may be where we are heading.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•4 days ago

I think it's more the West German and Italian years of lead of the 1970s (in Italy's case it shifted to the mafia wars into the 1990s), perhaps with pockets of the US facing more NI style scenarios. That's a worst case scenario, but Trump's actions make it possible.

paxlusitanica.bsky.social•4 days ago

Dreadful scenario indeed. Those decades were terrible for Italy in particular.

There are many US specificities, but two parameters to keep an eye on would be the fairly small influence of trade unions and the high rate of individual gun ownership. The dynamics will be different from 1970s Europe.

duncancd.bsky.social•4 days ago

Don't think he has 45% committed

jeboyt.bsky.social•3 days ago

That locked-in, dedicated base is only 25-30%

dmiyasaki.bsky.social•4 days ago

45% locked? Only 33% of the population voted for him and his approval has plummetted, especially in the last week. Here's a June 10 poll:

dmiyasaki.bsky.social•4 days ago

And here's a post from yesterday by the main newspaper of one of the reddest cities in one of the reddest states in the country:

dmiyasaki.bsky.social•4 days ago

He'll get away with anything not because he has support but because his only opposition is the majority of the population, and the supposed opposition party has completely abandoned us. Encouraging the false impression that he has strong support only helps him.

ghazalwamalook.bsky.social•17 minutes ago

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ghazalwamalook.bsky.social•3 days ago

Hello dear Donovan, I'm Kholoud. You may remember me. I would like to thank you for your continued support for us and my children, but we still need your help due to the high prices and the scarcity of aid we receive. Please, your support will save my children and help us survive.

jukkisahonen.bsky.social•3 days ago

Or people could stop going to work and grind everything to a halt in a couple of weeks.

Of course that requires sacrificing job, paycheck, security, and possibly health and freedom.

On the other hand, it might save your future.

mecha-sheep.bsky.social•4 days ago

That. This man is right. Anybody interested into democracy in the USA must understand that Trump's favorability is astounding. That guy is hideous, he talks like a 4 year old, he is a rapist, a crook, a traitor, a racist and openly corrupt.
And yet 45+ % of US voter think he is doing right.

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