The Netanyahu government is not going to stop until it has destabilised Iran - ThreadSky

aphclarkson.bsky.social • 10 days ago

The Netanyahu government is not going to stop until it has destabilised Iran

Reposted from NOELREPORTS

Renewed Israeli airstrikes are also reported in Shiraz, southern Iran

Comments

aphclarkson.bsky.social•10 days ago

A lot of analysts IMO are underpricing how quickly the destabilisation of Iran might be achieved.

darksatanicmills.bsky.social•10 days ago

*ruction*

trustedsystem.bsky.social•10 days ago

You agree with „Regime Change as a final goal“ sentiment?

stephenbc.bsky.social•10 days ago

Stuck in a 2010s framework. You can see it in everything, from Iran, to Russia to the US. Unable to concieve that what was unthinkable then is becoming the new normal.

christosilvia.bsky.social•10 days ago

*might* is the key word. Nothing is certain

pibasedlifeform.bsky.social•10 days ago

No danger of a "rallying against the external threat" type scenario

pibasedlifeform.bsky.social•10 days ago

I meant to put a question mark!

blabam.bsky.social•10 days ago

If you have been struggling for decades over your countries nuke program and war in neighbouring states and at the end of it all you get bombed the fucked out with ease... I wouldn't feel like rallying around the flag. Saying that, I have no idea how Iranians view their current clusterfuck.

alarcos.bsky.social•10 days ago

Indeed. Iran's only real retaliation option is a ballistic missile strike, with their proxies, with numbers that would overwhelm Israeli missile defences. That's a use-it-and-lose-it action they won't be likely to repeat often. But continuing attacks might bring about a use-it-or-lose-it reality.

alarcos.bsky.social•10 days ago

The Iranian regime is in a pickle, but what will replace it is far from clear.

gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social•10 days ago

I think there’s a lot of dead Russian officers that once had that same thought 6 hours into a short war.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•10 days ago

As long as the sustainability of US support is dependent on a few 1000 swing voters in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin there will be enough states willing to make the bet that the Americans will eventually get tired and leave their allies in the lurch

aphclarkson.bsky.social•10 days ago

Where Moscow has miscalculated in the long term is in how far it turned its war on Ukraine into a conflict that Europeans viewed as one that hits them directly. But Moscow and Washington elites never did understand the underlying dynamics of European integration

erikelmgren.bsky.social•9 days ago

The more USA withdraws the clearer the enormous cost of a loss in Ukraine becomes to Europe.

louisevans.bsky.social•10 days ago

Isn’t this backwards? Moscow’s bet in early 22 was not on outlasting the Biden admin but outrunning them, presenting even a unified and enduring US with a fait accompli.

gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social•10 days ago

I just mean I think it’s way too early to actually know how any of this ends up aligning with any discernible end states

aphclarkson.bsky.social•10 days ago

I struggle to see how Iran comes out of this in more stable condition or how Israel doesn't continue pursuing permanent warfare under its current government.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•10 days ago

And as long as Trump as in power I struggle to see how the US develops the strategic focus to rein any of this in.

saturn771.bsky.social•10 days ago

Iran doesn't have the technology (to even upkeep their country without war) or the willpower. Most of the country isn't even Persian or Shia. It's a big facade.

shuffleosint.bsky.social•10 days ago

Really feel like it could go either way, if the people unite around a sense of anti Israeli nationalism then it will strengthen the regime, otoh the level of discontent has been rising within Iran for years now. Maybe it's a breaking point.